Are We Back Yet?

October 6, 2021 By Yiannis Tsiounis Tags: MIGRATION, COVID-19

Migration and population trends for September 2021 are in. We are starting to see a slow return back to base, meaning residents returning to urban locations. But it is a slow process and by no means complete yet. Here are a few representative graphs that illustrate the point.

Resident moves from May to September 2021 show a slight increase of residents in the Northeast (New York to Massachusetts), Southeast, Northwest and (less so) in the Southwest coasts.

Resident moves map

In particular, New York county (Manhattan) is up 15% in September vs May 2021:

Manhattan residents

Boston is up almost 23% (reminder that the income shown is individual income, which is 60% lower on average than household income):

Boston residents

San Francisco up almost 3%:

San Francisco residents

But we still have a long way to go. Comparing recent residents vs February 2020 (just before the pandemic) shows a massive shift towards rural areas that has yet to be reversed:

Resident comparison to Feb 2020

In that comparison, New York county is down 46% since pre-pandemic:

Manhattan Residents since pre-pandemic

Boston down 16%:

Boston Residents since pre-pandemic

San Francisco down 32%:

San Francisco Residents since pre-pandemic

Seattle down 20%:

Seattle Residents since pre-pandemic

… and South Dakota up 28% !!!

South Dakota Residents since pre-pandemic

Stay tuned for more updates, as we clearly will need more time to get back to the pre-pandemic population distribution – if we ever will. Because, what’s wrong with South Dakota anyway?

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