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Thomas Paulson

Thomas Paulson

Thomas has been Head of Market Insights for Advan Research  since January 2025. Previously, he served as Director of Research and Business Development at Placer.ai, where he was instrumental in providing actionable insights derived from location analytics and the path for expansion into new verticals. His extensive background also includes two decades as a Wall Street analyst and portfolio manager in asset management at AllianceBernstein, Cornerstone, and others.
The Wireless Wars Extend To Cowboys Out on The Range

The Wireless Wars Extend To Cowboys Out on The Range

Most will know that the telecommunications industry is converging and transforming via new networks. By converging, we mean that legacy wireless brands are rapidly encroaching on cable’s broadband business with both new fiber builds and wireless broadband (5G fixed wireless), and cable is using Verizon’s network (a wholesale relationship) to offer wireless service and encroach on legacy wireless. Interesting, this week T-Mobile opened its network to cable to sell wireless service to small- to mid-sized enterprises.
6 minutes
Tesla’s Stock – Persistent Drama Queen

Tesla’s Stock – Persistent Drama Queen

Tesla’s quarterly results and commentary allowed us to delve deeper into our Advan Buysider theme / use case on Tesla’s autos business (on its other sentiment drivers – ZEV credits, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, Gronk, etc, we have no data or opinions). Q2 deliveries / production were already known, as such, it was the 2H tone / feel that mattered, and on this, management only offered that the environment was “challenging.” Moreover, they shared that they have pushed back the new lower-cost new model, again, to maximize production on existing models before the EV tax credit expires, which is September 30th.
2 minutes
Chipotle: Working harder to drive comp-transaction growth

Chipotle: Working harder to drive comp-transaction growth

As anticipated, Chipotle reported soft results for Q2, including comp-transactions declining -4.9%; total revenue of $3.14B was marginally above Advan’s $3.11B estimate, i.e. darn close. (The -4.9% is -260 bps of deceleration QoQ; Advan’s visits estimate decelerated -245bps QoQ, or roughly the same.) As a reminder, the fast-food industry is facing cyclical and secular pressure on sales – a topic that we presented to UBS’ clients this week, where the cyclical is consumption shifting to less expensive channels like food-at-home and convenience , and the secular is fewer calories consumed due to weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, etc).
3 minutes
July Retail Sales – Tracking Up

July Retail Sales – Tracking Up

As previewed , June retail sales increased at a slower pace than May, which itself was down from April’s; additionally, CPI showed the beginning of tariff costs being passed through to the consumer. Both were modest shifts, and so far in July, things have broadly firmed up, which we suspect is early back-to-school activity. This back-&-forth in momentum has been a persistent pattern since 2022, with seasonal periods picking up nicely (last Christmas was a blow-out holiday, for example) followed by broader and deeper troughs in between.
4 minutes
Limited Service Restaurants: Domino's results show how competitive intensity is eating into profitability. Got to be really hard on the little guys.

Limited Service Restaurants: Domino’s results show how competitive intensity is eating into profitability. Got to be really hard on the little guys.

Domino’s reported a much improved quarter vs. Q1 with US comp-sales increasing by +3.4%, driven by mix (Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza), positive pricing (COGS increased +4.8%), and comp-transactions (+2.0%). Carryout comp-sales increased +5.8% and delivery, +1.5% with more households choosing the cheaper carryout option. The Parmesan Stuffed is a new item and CEO Russell Weiner said, “Customer praise for this product has been significantly higher than any of our recent product launches.
2 minutes
Big-Ticket Leisure Activity – Softer this summer

Big-Ticket Leisure Activity – Softer this summer

The Fed’s latest Beige Book was released last week; the Atlanta district’s comments read, “Travel and tourism activity grew modestly, on balance, since the previous report [early June]… Group bookings for some properties did not meet expectations as international travel to the U.S. from Canada, Asia, and Europe, continued to slow. Demand for cruises rebounded from lows earlier this year.” These observations align with our story that Universal’s new Epic Universe theme park hasn’t yet lifted the Orlando Market.
2 minutes
Frito-Lay on the upswing as convenience store visits improve

Frito-Lay on the upswing as convenience store visits improve

We wrote an insights piece two weeks ago about the improving traffic into convenience and gas station stores (C&G), specifically from the pump pad into the store, and noted that it was a favorable development for CPG suppliers as well as the major operators, Casey’s Stores, Chevron, 7-Eleven, and Circle-K, etc. Today brought Pepsi’s Q2 earnings results, and lo and behold, the trend improved for Frito-Lay’s savory snacks business (Doritos, Tostitos, Lay’s, Fritos, etc.
2 minutes
Target’s Expansion Into Growth Mode Despite the Noise

Target’s Expansion Into Growth Mode Despite the Noise

Two months ago, we reviewed Target’s fiscal 1st quarter results, and before that, the news that they would be accelerating the store opening pace to 30 per year. Since then, the false narrative that boycotts following DEI policy changes were leading to severe traffic declines, along with growing media scrutiny of management’s decisions, including from CNBC with the title – **“Lost their identity: Why Target is struggling to win over shoppers and investors.
5 minutes
Albertsons Companies – More price investments ahead to rebuild share-of-stomach

Albertsons Companies – More price investments ahead to rebuild share-of-stomach

Albertsons Companies reported a +2.8% comp-sales increase for its fiscal quarter (June 14th end) driven by pharmacy (GLP-1 drugs) and e-commerce (3P delivery+curbside). Advan estimates that traffic was up modestly at Safeway and Albertsons. Deconstructing all of these figures implies a -3.6% decline in store units-per-transaction (UPTs), assuming that they passed through the +2.3% food-at-home inflation (CPI) in the period. The decline in UPTs is the natural result of the strong GLP usage (fewer calories eaten) and increased frugality.
3 minutes
Amazon Prime Day 2025 – Up nicely

Amazon Prime Day 2025 – Up nicely

The chart below shows trailing 7-day visits to 500 large Amazon fulfillment centers in the US, indexed to two days prior to the event in 2024 and 2025. Obviously, it’s the days trailing the event that are the busiest, given that’s when the orders are packed and put into delivery-station trucks. As such, it’s 2025’s large increases in Day-4, T+1, and T+2 that are really impressive. Why such a consumer response?
2 minutes