Posts by Yiannis Tsiounis

Yiannis Tsiounis

Yiannis is the CEO and founder of Advan Research. He is a serial entrepreneur who founded and led BQuotes, a fixed income price discovery platform, in 2005. BQuotes was acquired by Moody's in 2008. From 2003-2005 he was a Partner at Etolian Capital, a Fixed Income hedge fund.

Yiannis holds a Ph.D. in Cryptography with a thesis in Anonymous Electronic Cash, a Master's in Computer Science and a Bachelor's in Mathematics

Advan Hits: UAL correlation traffic vs revenue

Advan Notable Hits: United Airlines (UAL) & American Airlines (AAL)

January 24, 2025

Notable Hit 1: (UAL:NASDAQ) On Tuesday January 21, 2025 United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) posted revenues of $14.7 bn surpassing the analysts estimates by 3% and in the same direction as Advan's forecasted sales. Advan's data showed a 6.7% increase YoY in foot traffic to terminals at hubs...

driving_thanksgiving_week

Thanksgiving Road Trip vs Air Travel: 0-1

December 6, 2024

Earlier this week we examined how air travel fared during Thanksgiving 2024 (short answer: flat for the last 4 years): https://advanresearch.com/air-travel-steady-during-thanksgiving

But as we all know, the other favorable method of travel for Americans is the symbol of freedom: the automobile....

airtravel_thanksgiving_week

Air Travel Steady During Thanksgiving

December 4, 2024

Between the inherent drive to get away from it all and the fear that you will be squeezed like a sardine / ignored at the counter / trampled by the crowds / have your Luis Vuitton bags smudged / insert your own excuse here, air travel during Thanksgiving has held surprisingly steady over the last 4...

Black Friday Retail Visits

Black Friday is losing its luster – but there is a substitute!

December 3, 2024

We have all been seeing that with each passing year the panic of shopping on Black Friday has been subsiding. No more stories of pepper-spraying or trampling each other to be the first to grab the best deals.

The foot traffic is corroborating that sentiment. As seen in the first graphic below,...

Advan Hits: EAT correlation traffic vs revenue

Advan Notable Hits: Brinker International, Inc. (EAT), Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) & Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

February 2, 2024

Notable Hit 1: (EAT:NYSE) On Wednesday January 31, 2024 Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) posted revenues of $1.07 bn slightly missing the analysts estimate by 0.4% and in the same direction as Advan's forecasted sales. Advan's foot traffic data showed 7.6% increase YoY at its restaurant chains in...

Starbucks Red Cup Day

December 18, 2023

We love our coffee like the next person. But, with our data we can actually qualify what the “next person” actually thinks.

Starbuck’s Red Cup days are an interesting indicator of the spirit of the moment. Let’s analyze how the chain has performed in the last few years on that day.

In 2017,...

Advan Miles driven index monthly

The Dawn of Elastic Gas Demand

July 21, 2022

Historically, gas demand has been pretty predictable for any given time of the year, so the supply has been what mostly determined the pricing we see in the pumps. With the advent of remote working and as a result the ability to commute less, however, Americans have at least one lever to reduce the...

Target foot traffic

The full picture for retailers: Supply and Demand

June 7, 2022

Target (NYCE: TGT) announced today that it expects lower profit due to high inventory.

It is counter-intuitive, but cellphone location data is measuring this discrepancy by monitoring Target’s supply and demand sides.

On the demand side, in the image below we can see foot traffic in Target...

Foot traffic at CMBS property: Westfield Citrus Park

CMBS test case: MSBAM 2013-C10

November 30, 2021

The lower tranches of MSBAM 2013-C10 have been in trouble since the beginning of the pandemic. Fitch details their latest downgrade in their last update at the end of September.

In particular, the downgrade is due to the troubles at Westfield Citrus Park, which is in a friendly foreclosure;...

Advan Miles Driven vs Gas Price

Unprecedented Gas Demand And High Prices At The Pump

November 18, 2021

Advan has been flagging an unprecedented demand in gasoline as early as February 2021. Unsurprisingly, gasoline prices have been following traffic (ie demand) at the gas stations in lockstep, since we have started tracking gas station traffic in 2016.

The graph below shows gasoline prices...

Airport traffic weekly change

Are the Tourists here yet?

November 16, 2021

The US borders finally opened on November 8. Did that result in a material influx of tourists that will help increase hotel and retail traffic?

Not yet...

Let's review 5 airports that showcase both domestic and international travel: LAX and ORD (Chicago O'Hare) that capture international...

Resident moves map

Are We Back Yet?

October 6, 2021

Migration and population trends for September 2021 are in. We are starting to see a slow return back to base, meaning residents returning to urban locations. But it is a slow process and by no means complete yet. Here are a few representative graphs that illustrate the point.

Resident moves from...