Recovery in Foot Traffic Levels at Car Dealerships Most Pronounced in Red States Like many other sectors, the US car industry saw a sharp downturn in business when lock-down orders and business closures were at their peak in late March and April. Combined sales in April 2020 for the Big 3 US carmakers - GM, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler - were down 63% compared to the previous year according to GoodCarBadCar.net.

Foot Traffic to Truck Stops Rebounds Post Lock-down A recent article on Wall Street Journal by Peter Grant took an insightful look at how truck stops in the US have been boosted this year, in part due to the increase in demand for e-commerce and delivery. Travel Centers of America (NASDAQ: TA), the largest publicly listed operator of truck stops in the US, saw its share price increase 50% following its quarterly earning announcement in early August.

As we near the last stretch of the US summer season, we looked again at foot traffic data for US airports as one measure of the impact being felt by the travel industry. In our blog post on June 19th, we noted that traffic at US international hubs was severely depressed, with some regional hubs seeing a little more activity. As a key indicator of overall air travel, the chart below shows foot traffic at all US airports.

Heading into earnings season we reviewed foot traffic data at four major hotel chains to help provide insights into likely company performance. We looked at Extended Stay America (STAY), Choice Hotels (CHH), Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT) and compared the percentage change in stock prices over time with the average percentage change in foot traffic for the same period. From the second week of February all four of the chains we analyzed saw a steep and prolonged fall in stock price through to the first week of April, when they began to rebound.

As a continuation of our previous analysis Path to Recovery Far from Clear , we updated the data to show how the foot traffic trend at consumer discretionary businesses varies in three states: California, New York and Texas. The US faces a deep coronavirus crisis as new cases are surging to record highs in many states. Texas was one of the first states to reopen in May with restaurants, retail stores, malls and even theaters to allow to reopen at limited capacity.

The RV market in the US looks like it may have found a new client base during the pandemic. As reported by the New York Times , companies like Cruise America, the largest RV rental company in the US, typically count on overseas visitors for about 40% of their bookings. The majority of these visitors usually come from Europe and with borders closing, rentals fell steeply. Foot traffic to rental locations was down over 40% in April compared to the previous year.

With COVID cases rising again in Southern and Western states, the Washington Post reported that many hospitals are under renewed strain, with beds being filled to capacity. In order to measure the true number of hospital admissions, we have developed an algorithm that can track overnight stays for any period of time (by excluding staff and visitors). The chart below reflects the critical situation that hospitals are facing in light of rising case numbers.

For our fourth post in our summer series, we switch to what we would broadly term essential retailers. Big box stores such as CostCo and Sam’s Club were early winners in the pandemic era as many of us stocked up in preparation for an anticipated period of lock-down. Below, a chart for Costco foot traffic since January shows a familiar story. A peak in late March, followed by a drop through April, as lock-downs were imposed and stores restricted the number of people who could enter.

In this third blog post of our summer series, we review two different measures of economic activity that can help paint an overall picture of consumer trends. Measuring foot traffic at consumer discretionary businesses helps us understand the extent to which people are back to shopping for non-essentials - an indicator for increasing flexibility of movement and confidence in the outlook. During April and May there was a massive year-over-year drop in visits to non-essential locations.

In this second post based on data from our summer webinar, we reviewed the sectors at the heart of the tourism industry - hotels, restaurants and casinos. We had previously analyzed hotel foot traffic in multiple states. You can read our full analysis in a previous blog post here . Just to recap, in the majority of states hotel foot traffic remains well below average, pre-pandemic levels. The exception is South Carolina, where hotel traffic has returned to levels 5% above the start of the year.