Last week we hosted a webinar where we dug into some key data to help understand and predict trends for the travel and tourism sectors as we head into the summer. Since Europe was locked down earlier than North America, it has also started opening up sooner. As a comparison, we looked first at foot traffic in European airports to see whether there are any early signs of a pick-up in visitors coming into the peak holiday period.

In the past week, many states have started to see a resurgence in the number of COVID cases. In response to the need for more accurate data to monitor the pressure being placed on hospitals around the country, we have significantly enhanced our data on hospital admission. Our data is now more precise and, crucially it can also be broken down to show overnight stays over over 3 days to give a true picture of the number of beds being used.

As one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, hotels, resorts and leisure facilities are hoping that the summer may offer a recovery in the form of reduced case numbers and fewer cancelled vacations. A critical period for the industry, a bounce back in July and August could help mitigate some of the losses from the past few months. Our analysis of foot traffic, using our Hotel, Resort and Leisure Index, shows a very mixed picture across different states.

Earlier this week we shared our global Sector Tracker that analyzes recovery trends by highlighting the sector with most week-over-week growth in each country. Last week, in the US, it was the transportation sector the had seen the biggest uptick in activity, based on our analysis of foot traffic at key locations. Since a significant share of traffic measured in this sector comes from airports, this is an indicator of an important trend for the travel industry.

The current and forthcoming earnings seasons will be one of the most unpredictable many of us have encountered. Anticipating and modelling sales performance will be challenging on multiple levels, given massive disparities across the country in terms of store openings and closing. With the ability to monitor daily foot traffic at every store in the country, Advan’s location data provides the unique ability to identify which stores are open or closed in almost real time.

With a decrease in social distancing measures across most states, and markets reaching record highs, the past couple of weeks had felt like a tentative breakthrough after months of lockdown and uncertainty. Yet news from the Fed today that they would hold rates steady for the foreseeable future and another heavy week for jobless claims led to a 5% drop in the Nasdaq. The fall of 1,400 points sent stocks towards their worst day for markets since mid-March.

Monday was the first day non-essential office workers could return to work in Boston. There was NO rush back to the office. Using mobile tracking data from Advan Research, overall foot traffic was up 7.3% in the Seaport waterfront last week compared to 2 weeks ago. Compared to one-year ago, foot traffic is down 83%. Numerous employers have pushed back their plans to return to the office between Independence Day and Labor Day, significantly limiting overall foot traffic for the foreseeable future.

As the US restaurant sector starts to get back on its feet, we have been monitoring foot traffic numbers with interest to see which are turning around most quickly. The 3 chains we analyzed saw significant falls in traffic between mid-March and the end of April. This was most dramatic for Darden, where foot traffic fell to almost zero given the sit-down nature of the chain’s restaurants. Yum brands saw a 60% fall in foot traffic at the nadir and Chipotle a 70% drop.

Geolocation data gives us an almost infinite number of ways to track and measure the extent and impact of relaxing social distancing measures, such as we are starting to witness in many states across the country. For us – based on our extensive analysis of this kind of data – “miles driven” is a key leading indicator of behavior. Our proprietary miles driven index is an accurate way to track how many miles individuals in the US are driving on a daily basis.

Over the past several weeks, meat processing plants around the world have been receiving increased attention in the media. The high numbers of COVID-19 cases in these locations, where physical distancing can be difficult, has affected meat supply chains across the country. While some plants closed, many have now reopened. Physical distancing measures are in place but the number of workers on production lines remains depressed with many having fallen sick and others cautious about returning to work due to the risk of infection.