We wrote an insights piece two weeks ago about the improving traffic into convenience and gas station stores (C&G), specifically from the pump pad into the store, and noted that it was a favorable development for CPG suppliers as well as the major operators, Casey’s Stores, Chevron, 7-Eleven, and Circle-K, etc. Today brought Pepsi’s Q2 earnings results, and lo and behold, the trend improved for Frito-Lay’s savory snacks business (Doritos, Tostitos, Lay’s, Fritos, etc.

Two months ago, we reviewed Target’s fiscal 1st quarter results, and before that, the news that they would be accelerating the store opening pace to 30 per year. Since then, the false narrative that boycotts following DEI policy changes were leading to severe traffic declines, along with growing media scrutiny of management’s decisions, including from CNBC with the title – **“Lost their identity: Why Target is struggling to win over shoppers and investors.

Albertsons Companies reported a +2.8% comp-sales increase for its fiscal quarter (June 14th end) driven by pharmacy (GLP-1 drugs) and e-commerce (3P delivery+curbside). Advan estimates that traffic was up modestly at Safeway and Albertsons. Deconstructing all of these figures implies a -3.6% decline in store units-per-transaction (UPTs), assuming that they passed through the +2.3% food-at-home inflation (CPI) in the period. The decline in UPTs is the natural result of the strong GLP usage (fewer calories eaten) and increased frugality.

The chart below shows trailing 7-day visits to 500 large Amazon fulfillment centers in the US, indexed to two days prior to the event in 2024 and 2025. Obviously, it’s the days trailing the event that are the busiest, given that’s when the orders are packed and put into delivery-station trucks. As such, it’s 2025’s large increases in Day-4, T+1, and T+2 that are really impressive. Why such a consumer response?

In light of our Tuesday article on the slower pace for retail sales in June and the tough earnings report by Conagra on Thursday, we wanted to delve into how “advantaged” grocers were doing. (Conagra reported a segment profit decline of -10% for its May-end quarter and profits for the next twelve-month period are expected to decline another 20%-ish.) As the chart below demonstrates, these specialty grocers slowed in mid-June as well.

Tuesday’s article previewing June retail sales, along with some hypotheses for why the month appears to be a deceleration from May’s pace, solicited some questions about the athleisure category. For athleisure, there was also a slowdown starting June 12th, similar to what we shared yesterday. Vuori’s deceleration is most abrupt. Lululemon and Alo Yoga have drifted back to their March pace; perhaps the bump they experienced in April and May was pull-forward with consumers securing coveted items before tariffed goods hit the shelves.

We forecasted in our review of May retail sales that June’s pace would likely be stronger than May’s; well being a forecaster, we know that we are going to be wrong some times and based on Advan’s foot traffic and transaction data, June looks to be softer AND NOT stronger. (Recall, the retail calendar puts July 5th as the end of the month vs. July 6th last year.) The first half of the period was stronger than the second half; the second half aligned with the extreme temperatures in the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast.

The third issue of The Advan Buysider is now available, featuring updates to the names from previous issues, along with new themes on DIS, CMCSA, PRKS, MGM, WYNN, PSA, HRL, and EXP. As a reminder, The Buysider is designed to provide timely, novel, and impactful insights on specific names and topics using Advan’s data. Download Issue 3 Watch the webinar

In light of our travels around California during the 4th of July week, the current events in California, and our recent insights on convenience stores and weight loss drugs hurting visits to limited-service restaurants (LSR), we turned the “Advan spotlight” on burger-QSR in California. As shown in the following chart, the category’s trend remains soft for June and Q2. The downshift for Burger King and McDonald’s in the 2H of June largely reflects difficult comparisons to last summer when they re-launched the $5 Value Meal.

With the battle for Seven-&-i and its US business ongoing and our recent story about weight loss drug usage hitting fast food, we took a look at recent trends for Convenience and Gas (C&G) retail. As a reminder, the industry has been facing a cyclical economic challenge as fewer motorists are enter the stores to purchase a snack, a six-pack, etc. For the industry, those inside the store visits are where the money is; for example, **Casey’s General Stores **makes $0.