The second issue of The Advan Buysider is now available, featuring updates to the names from Issue #1, along with new themes on DVA, PII, and GWW. As a reminder, The Buysider is designed to provide timely, novel, and impactful insights on specific names and topics using Advan’s data. Download Issue 2 Watch the webinar

Fiscal Q1 comp-sales results for off-price retailers were softer across the board due to a moderation in traffic. Traffic per location was slightly up for Burlington and HomeGoods and slightly down for TJ Maxx and Ross Dress for Less (per Advan). Results for the traditional department stores were less bad. In sum, this demonstrates that the share transfer from traditional to off-price slowed. In our view, this is the result of the traditional department stores executing better, rather than off-price brands executing “less well.

AutoZone reported solid sales results, offset by some gross margin contraction. The commercial side particularly improved to again post a double-digit increase. CEO Phil Daniele has been in the job for just over a year and improving commercials was one of his key objectives. Daniele said, “While the macro environment and the uncertainty around tariffs have forced customers to be cautious with their spending, the consistency of our failure and maintenance businesses continued this past quarter.

Lowe’s and Home Depot reported relatively stable results in what is a downbeat housing and home improvement market, as is shown by industry traffic in the chart below. Of note, both benefited from a pull-forward of larger ticket durable goods (appliances) ahead of any price increases resulting from tariffs; the other big-ticket categories like flooring, kitchen, and bath remain in a slump. Commercial building was the strongest end-market as demonstrated by Home Depot Supply (HDS) outperformance.

In contrast to the frequent press articles that Target’s foot traffic and sales were down mid-to-high single-digits due to consumer backlash over Target’s DEI policy changes, comp-transactions / traffic was down only -2.4%. Comp-sales for the stores were down -5.7%, which was partially offset by a +4.7% in digital sales (which is mainly store-delivery and curbside). As shown in the table below, February was the softest month per Advan traffic, and the period’s reported traffic* was largely in line with the Advan estimate.

Dick’s Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker was unexpected, and despite management’s claim that it would be accretive to earnings, along with a preliminary fiscal Q1 results where comp-sales were above estimates (+4.1% vs expectations of +2.6%), the stock dumped -15%. Our quick thoughts and then our data. First, the near-term accretion was simple math, ahead of the news Dick’s traded at 10.1X EV / EBITDA on a NTM basis, above Foot Locker’s 8.

In our review of Q4 Walmart Inc. results, we highlighted Sam’s compounding success in gaining household share which stems from strong execution on merchandise and service contemporizing (while also benefiting from the favorable macro-consumer trends that are lifting the entire club sector). Today, we shift the focus to Walmart US and its grocery business for this Q1 commentary. (We’ll come back to Walmart’s general merchandise results post Target’s earnings release next week.

DaVita, the dialysis treatment company, had a soft Q1 as volume (treatments per day) in the US declined -0.6%, which was below management’s plan due to a number of external impacts. The KPI also decelerated QoQ by -30 bps, which compares to visits (Advan) slowing by -40 bps on a days-adjusted basis. Dynamics impacting Q1 were a harsh flu season and disruptive weather in Jan / Feb which resulted in missed treatments.

Two weeks back, we wrote about the weak set of Q1 sales results from McDonald’s , Domino’s , Chipotle , Wendy’s, Shake Shack, and others. Last week, the wipeout in fast food (called limited service in industry lingo) broadened to include Sweet Green, Papa John’s, and Restaurant Brands International (i.e. Burger King). We wrote in our earlier articles that the softness was the result of consumer fatigue following compounding inflation and too many price increases by limited-service which has resulted in share-of-stomach shifting from away-from-home consumption to at-home (or grocery).

Better-than-expected quarterly results from Savers Value Village and ThredUp, plus the threat of inflation from tariffs, motivated us to take a look at foot traffic for the secondhand retail sector and its major players. As a reminder, the fiscal stimulus of ’21 and the bout of inflation in ’22 produced very strong years for the sector. So much so that those good times compelled ThredUp to IPO in ’21 and Savers in ’23.