As we saw with the results from O’Reilly and NAPA, Advance Auto Parts also reported stronger comp-sales and gross profits, and especially on the commercial side (also called DIFM or Pro). Overall comp-sales, accelerated by +300bps, with DIY and commercial improving similarly; commercial comps (+4%) outperformed DIY’s +2%, as is the case for the industry. The observed traffic, shown in the chart, is for all observed Advance retail locations; the prior quarter’s business divestitures and store closures will impact the percent-change observed (which we estimate equates to a 250 to 300 bps headwind to our observations).

Comcast CFO Jason Armstrong, “We’re really pleased with the early results from Epic, which are driving higher per cap spending and attendance across the entirety of **Universal **Orlando. We remain focused on expanding ride throughput as we build to run rate capacity and expect Epic to continue scaling over the next year with higher attendance, stronger per caps and improved operating leverage.” Advan estimates that Epic is doing about 30% of the attendance that Universal Studios Orlando does.

Given that it’s Halloween, we are going to use its darker tone in this story. In August, Amazon launched same-day delivery in perishables in 1000 cities and while the year-end target of 2000 cities was bold, with Q3 results, CEO Andy Jassy shared that they have lifted the target to 2300, which tells us that Amazon really likes what it’s doing for the overall business. He stated that the offering is “really changing the trajectory and the size of our grocery business,” which hitherto was self-stable / center-store categories.

This week, concerns rose on consumer “health” given weaker results from packaged food, weak results from Chipotle, and very low guidance for Q4 from Sprouts Farmers Market. Sprouts has knocked it out of the ballpark for the past six quarters, and so, to guide to comps of only 0-2% for Q4 is to suggest a sharp downshift in consumer spending. As it relates to Sprouts, along with incremental paycheck behaviour, perhaps weaker execution and new competition may be at work as well.

Given slow drip inflation, a worrisome jobs market, and student loan repayments, we were pleasantly surprised that trends for both Lux and mass beauty have recently improved after a soft ’24 and 1H’25 per the Q3 results from L’Oréal, LVMH, Estée Lauder, and Procter & Gamble. Encouragingly, we also see the improvement in observed traffic and spend at Ulta. What’s going on? And what does it mean for the category’s big season ahead?

Chili’s outstanding market share gains continues with FQ1 comp-traffic gaining +13% which drove a similar gain QoQ in the 3-year comp CAGR (+4.2%). (Brinker’s fiscal quarter ended September 24th.) Price and mix each added 4 pts, taking the comp-sales increase to 21.4%. As a reminder, industry sales growth is only +4% range*, and so, Chili’s is 5X that. FQ1’s strong comps also drove robust increases in margins and earnings, with Chili’s restaurant operating margin hitting 17.

Well, Starbucks’ US comp-sales were not down -1% as investors feared, but flat for the quarter, which was a +200bps QoQ improvement. Additionally, the comp was not driven by more pricing as average check decelerated -100bps QoQ to only contribute +100bps YoY. Comp-traffic/transaction was the driver, improving from -4% to -1%, or around +300bps QoQ. That 300bps increase was ahead of observed traffic (Advan), which strengthened by +80bps. (Others were suggesting a -160bps QoQ deterioration.

With Tesla’s earnings call, we got a better understanding of why production has remained firm despite the lapse in the $7500 EV tax credit. (See our prior reports on Q3 production / demand here and here .) Elon Musk, “I think that Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI out there in the car, and that is only going to get better. And we’re really just at the beginning of scaling at quite massively full self-driving and Robotaxi and fundamentally changing the nature of transport.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) reported solid top- and bottom-line results for Q3. (TSCO’s Q3 ended on September 27th.) Comp-sales increased +3.9%, driven by comp-transactions +2.7%. Adding in the contribution from new stores, sales increased +7.2%. That increase, plus slightly higher margins, lifted gross profits by +7.7%. The mid-point of guidance puts the Q4 comp in the range of +3.0%. In terms of the quarter cadence, CEO Hal Lawton shared, “We saw a strong start to the quarter with spending trends moderating into September.

Last week, we had the opportunity to present our views and data on the US consumer at the National Association for Business Economics’ Annual Meeting (the Chair Jerome Powell event). We shared that the “right upward arm” of our K-shaped economy had picked up sharply since early August (presentation here ) and we expected that to continue through year-end should the stock market carry on strongly. (Our loyal readers will know that the high-end is why we believe that September retail sales were stronger as well.