By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights In the context of a market that grew by +3.2% in value and +2.1% in volume, Advan took a look at Publix’s and General Mills’ Q4 results, along with two smaller regional grocers in California – Smart & Final and Stater Bros, brands that we shop and that have been in the news. The results and data from all four reinforce one of our 2025 themes: the year is going to be a difficult one for the industry with (1) consumers increasing their loyalty to retailers that have a strong private label and produce offerings and (2) increased promotions to retain customers by those grocers on the losing side, with those promos being concentrated on the national CPG brands.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings reported solid FQ4 results with adjusted sales growth of +9% to $667M (just shy of Advan’s estimate of $672M). Growth was driven by a +2.8% comp-sales increase and 47 (+9%) more stores over the past year, including locations taken over from Big Lots and 99 Cents Only. The earnings release quoted CEO Eric van der Valk saying, “With so many retailers closing stores or going bankrupt in the past year, there are a considerable number of abandoned customers, merchandise, real estate, and talent in the marketplace.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Over the weekend, again numerous press and blog reports declared Target’s store traffic to be down due to boycotts and upset feelings over Target’s messaging around DEI. However, those reports cite a traffic decline YoY against a week last year that included an extra day (Leap Day). We adjust for that by using 7-day and 91-day rolling periods and Advan’s data shows no unusual trend for Target vs.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Ulta Beauty reported a comp-sales increase for Q4 of +1.5%, driven by a +3.0% increase in average ticket and a -1.4% decrease in comp-transactions. Removing the lift from ecommerce sales, store comp-sales increased modestly, suggesting a slight decline in store comp-transactions. Advan estimates that store comp-traffic increased +0.3%; if true, that would imply a modest decrease in the store conversion rate; that’s not unexpected given a more cautious consumer environment and substantial competitive encroachment on the retailer from Amazon and Sephora.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Dollar General reported $10.2B revenue for Q4, up +5.0% YoY, and above our +3.9% estimate* (120bps Moe, 97% correlation). Comp-sales increased +1.2% driven by consumables (+2.7%). The non-consumables comp was roughly flat, the best result since early 2021. Additionally, comp-tickets increased +2.3% and comp-transactions decreased -1.1%. Advan shows traffic per average store declining -0.4%. The earnings release quotes CEO Todd Vasos saying, “As we reflect on our full fiscal 2024 year, we believe our Back to Basics work is resonating with customers, as demonstrated by higher customer satisfaction scores and healthy market share gains.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Casey’s General Stores, Inc reported strong quarterly results for its “inside” business with comp-sales on prepared food & dispensed beverages increasing 4.7% and grocery & general merchandise increasing 3.3%. As a reminder, the gas & convenience channel is undergoing a transformation to more fresh and prepared offerings vs. packaged food. Not only does the fresh & prepared allow retailers to create differentiation and capture market share, but the offering also has a much higher gross margin rate at nearly 60% vs.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. reported solid results, including an underlying sales increase of 6% based upon a 6.4% comp-sales increase and improved gross margin rate. The comp-sales increase was composed of increases of 4.4% in comp-ticket, 2.0% in comp-transactions, and a modest decrease in comp-traffic (Advan) of -1.1%. Assuming online comp-transactions were up high-single-digits and stripping that from the 2.0% increase in transactions, lowers estimated store comp-transactions to the Advan’s measure of comp-traffic, which implies a stable conversion rate.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Kohl’s: Quarterly sales were “less bad” at a decline (-9.4%) than our preview (we said -14%). In our preview, we also forecasted that incoming CEO Ashley Buchanan would set a very low bar on forward expectations, he did. Revenue for 2025 was guided for a decline of -5 to -7%. The operating margin target for the year was also significantly down (2.2% to 2.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Last week’s analysis included management’s comments relative to any DEI backlash that they were seeing no impact to their business. However, over the weekend, media outlets wrote about a negative impact on Target store traffic and business from the backlash. Well, third-party data being third party (i.e. an estimate vs. ground truth first-party data) requires understanding the scope of the aggregation and its limitations.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Production activity at Freemont, Austin, and Berlin has stepped meaningfully lower in February, accentuating the negative trend at year end. Clearly, Tesla’s sales and operations team are observing a slackening in demand, confirming industry and press reports, and cutting production to manage inventory levels down. Industry watchers Wards and Motor Intelligence peg deliveries at flat in the US through February (they should have been up due to an easy comparison); related research from Goldman Sachs shows deep declines in purchase intent for Tesla vs the Detroit-3.