The Census Bureau was to release its report of September retail sales on October 16th. That is on pause now given the shutdown; as a result, folks will have to look at alternative data to understand how the US consumer is doing – a popular concern these days given the weakish new hiring and net job growth. With that, we are pleased to report that we believe retail spending (as defined by the Census’ report ) during September accelerated from August’s healthy pace, with the incremental driver being stronger spending by affluent households and continued improvement in housing-related demand.

As previewed , Tesla’s Q3 global deliveries (+2%) were far ahead of expectations and Q2’s rate (-13%). Reported deliveries of 497K where 12% above the sell-side consensus of 443K. Given 3rd party reports of sales being down in Europe (-20% ish) and China (-HSD ish), the US was up strongly as Advan’s manufacturing and showroom data suggested. September domestic sales are estimated to be +6% per Morgan Stanley’s analyst. As shown, visits remained robust into the end of the month and the expiration of the $7500 tax credit.

Turnarounds are messy and non-linear, and that’s clear in Nike’s store foot traffic, as shown. A lot of the traffic decline is centered on weaker consumer spending by the non-affluent, which especially hits Nike’s classic styles (Air Force 1, Air Jordan 1, and Dunk), and Nike’s ongoing challenges in athleisure sportswear, in what is a weaker category overall vs. its post-pandemic upsurge. However, in the foot traffic pattern we see a firming up occurring given the moderating volatility and the favorable direction of the “swoosh.

Given our recent analysis on how extended store hours were driving additional visits to **Sam’s **and Costco, we were interested in what Costco had to say about it on yesterday’s earnings call. CEO Ron Vachris said, “We estimate these incremental hours have added about 1% to weekly U.S. sales since implementation. This has been very well received by our members.” CFO Gary Millerchip shared, “Excluding the membership fee increase and FX, membership income grew 7% year-over-year.

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Yesterday we took time to visit our nearby Apple store to check on the new iPhone Air (yes, it’s a very nice device) and was surprised by the high bustle of activity at the store despite it being 2:00 on a Wednesday afternoon. We were also struck by the number of folks saying to the salesperson, “We’re here to get new phones.” There were also numerous visitors trying on Apple Watches.

Advan has launched its SpendView™ geographic visualization product. This shows historical brand and location level, as well as consumer spending from a zip code / DMA / regional level (within where the spender lives). This is based on our panel of over 120M debit and credit cards. We then aggregate that spending by retailer brand and on- vs. off-line in terms of the utilized channel of a given brand. The charts below contrast Walmart and Amazon, August 2025 vs.

In our last story about the blowout opening of the Wizard of Oz at Sphere in Las Vegas, we promised to come back to the story with next week’s results and Wow! did it perform strongly. Based upon observed visits and a $200 average ticket cost, we estimate that attendance for the Thursday – Sunday period (10 showings) increased by 60% to 72K tickets and $15M in box office. In movies, the WoW decay in box office is typically 50%.

Contrary to our expectation, observed activity at Tesla’s showrooms has not dramatically slowed on a YoY basis as the calendar pushes closer to the expiration of the EV tax credit, something that Tesla is highlighting at its showrooms and website (second panel below). Moreover, it’s a deadline that every active EV buying prospect has to be aware of. Activity has moved lower on an absolute basis as is shown in the blue shade below.

Darden’s fiscal Q1 results were solid, observed traffic (Advan) increased +3.7% at Olive Garden and reported comp-traffic was +3.6% (with catering). Focusing on just Olive Garden, delivery (both the meals and the fees) added around +140bps to comp-sales, and price / mix another +90bps, to make up the +5.9% reported comp-sales increase. Excluding delivery, average check was lifted by pricing, but offset by mix to value offers / portions and less alcohol.