As traffic data and intra-quarter commentary indicated, U.S. comp-sales deteriorated QoQ by -110bps for a -1.4% decline for Q4. Advan Research data showed a -136bps deterioration in traffic and -115bps in spend*. However, since the E. coli scare in October , the traffic and sales trend has improved as shown in the chart above. CEO Kris Kempczinski stated, “The U.S. food safety issue is now largely behind us, and we expect to have fully recovered by the beginning of Q2.

What struck us about Amazon’s Q4 results was the significant upside in its North America margins and profits; margins hit 8.0% vs. the expectation of 6.5% (BBG) and EBIT hit $9.3B vs. the expectation of $7.4B. Amazon has worked diligently to lower the cost to serve since early 2023 by staging more of its inventory close to the consumer using predictive inventory planning and is regional delivery stations. On the call, CEO Andy Jassy said, “Our speed of delivery continues to accelerate, and 2024 was another record-setting year for Prime members.