Earlier this week we examined how air travel fared during Thanksgiving 2024 (short answer: flat for the last 4 years): https://advanresearch.com/air-travel-steady-during-thanksgiving But as we all know, the other favorable method of travel for Americans is the symbol of freedom: the automobile. Traditionally, Thanksgiving week was the most traffic jammed travelled period of the year. How did this and prior years fare? To get a full picture, here we compare the miles travelled for the whole week, from Saturday before Thanksgiving until Sunday after Thanksgiving, versus the miles traveled for each year (excluding December, for which we don’t have 2024 data yet), so we can see not only the absolute but also the relative trends vs what happens throughout the year.

Between the inherent drive to get away from it all and the fear that you will be squeezed like a sardine / ignored at the counter / trampled by the crowds / have your Luis Vuitton bags smudged / insert your own excuse here, air travel during Thanksgiving has held surprisingly steady over the last 4 years, and just below its all time highs. Here we utilize cellphone data to measure foot traffic in airport locations and airline terminals.

We have all been seeing that with each passing year the panic of shopping on Black Friday has been subsiding. No more stories of pepper-spraying or trampling each other to be the first to grab the best deals. The foot traffic is corroborating that sentiment. As seen in the first graphic below, the Black Friday retail store visits are showing a clearly declining trend. There were fewer Black Friday store visits this year than during the pandemic!

We love our coffee like the next person. But, with our data we can actually qualify what the “next person” actually thinks. Starbuck’s Red Cup days are an interesting indicator of the spirit of the moment. Let’s analyze how the chain has performed in the last few years on that day. In 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, daily visits during Red Cup Day jumped by -6%, 1%, 8%, 20%, 13%, 15%, respectively, compared to the daily visit average during the five weeks preceding Red Cup Day each year.

Historically, gas demand has been pretty predictable for any given time of the year, so the supply has been what mostly determined the pricing we see in the pumps. With the advent of remote working and as a result the ability to commute less, however, Americans have at least one lever to reduce the amount of gas they purchase. The other major aspect of the demand of course being leisure travel.

Target (NYCE: TGT) announced today that it expects lower profit due to high inventory. It is counter-intuitive, but cellphone location data is measuring this discrepancy by monitoring Target’s supply and demand sides. On the demand side, in the image below we can see foot traffic in Target stores () and its associated blue trendline being relatively steady, at a 3% Y/Y increase vs same quarter last year, and closely following the revenue y/y change; on the supply side however we see that employees in Target distribution facilities () are up 48% on a Y/Y basis for the last quarter, and this over-supply has persisted for the last 3 fiscal quarters.

The lower tranches of MSBAM 2013-C10 have been in trouble since the beginning of the pandemic. Fitch details their latest downgrade in their last update at the end of September. In particular, the downgrade is due to the troubles at Westfield Citrus Park, which is in a friendly foreclosure; Southsdale Center; and the Mall at Tuttle Crossing. Let’s look at these centers in sequence. According to Fitch, Westfield Citrus Park reported June 2021 TTM in-line sales of approximately $120 compared to $379 per sqft at YE 2019.

Advan has been flagging an unprecedented demand in gasoline as early as February 2021. Unsurprisingly, gasoline prices have been following traffic (ie demand) at the gas stations in lockstep, since we have started tracking gas station traffic in 2016. The graph below shows gasoline prices overlaid with Advan Miles Driven index: We can speculate about the reasons for the surge in demand: more people are driving to work instead of using mass transit; more are traveling by car instead of flying when possible; more are just not working or taking trips when they can; people moved out of city centers where they didn’t regularly use a car and are now driving for groceries, run errands etc.

The US borders finally opened on November 8. Did that result in a material influx of tourists that will help increase hotel and retail traffic? Not yet… Let’s review 5 airports that showcase both domestic and international travel: LAX and ORD (Chicago O’Hare) that capture international visitors from the Asia-Pacific region, and JFK and EWR (Newark) that capture traffic from Europe; plus LGA (LaGuardia) which has mostly domestic traffic for comparison.

Migration and population trends for September 2021 are in. We are starting to see a slow return back to base, meaning residents returning to urban locations. But it is a slow process and by no means complete yet. Here are a few representative graphs that illustrate the point. Resident moves from May to September 2021 show a slight increase of residents in the Northeast (New York to Massachusetts), Southeast, Northwest and (less so) in the Southwest coasts.