After a quarter of controversy on the pace of sales for limited-service operators, the results have spoken; comp-sales did not slow overall. As shown in our restaurant industry indexes, observed visits on a 2-year CAGR basis have largely been flat since July. The 1-year figures are boosted by activity resulting from Hurricane Erin, whereas the depression in September results from lapping Hurricane Helene. Also as a reminder, local / independents are taking traffic share, a topic of our story on Sysco’s earnings; industry peer Performance Food Group is experiencing the same trend with COO Scott McPherson saying, “Starting with Foodservice, the segment built upon its momentum by accelerating independent case growth compared to FQ4 and maintaining chain case growth in the low single digits… On an organic basis, Foodservice cases grew 5.

Since our last story on Target (FQ2 results), the company has had a successful Circle Week event, a Taylor Swift Exclusive, and a large layoff announcement. Given a new CEO, its weak financial performance this year, and the broadening trend of greater efficiency and “delayering” across corporate America, the layoff should have surprised no one. Also not unexpectedly, CEO Michael Fiddelke’s charge to spread the Tarjay across the store with greater urgency isn’t an overnight fix, and certainly not an easy fix.

As we saw with the results from O’Reilly and NAPA, Advance Auto Parts also reported stronger comp-sales and gross profits, and especially on the commercial side (also called DIFM or Pro). Overall comp-sales, accelerated by +300bps, with DIY and commercial improving similarly; commercial comps (+4%) outperformed DIY’s +2%, as is the case for the industry. The observed traffic, shown in the chart, is for all observed Advance retail locations; the prior quarter’s business divestitures and store closures will impact the percent-change observed (which we estimate equates to a 250 to 300 bps headwind to our observations).

Comcast CFO Jason Armstrong, “We’re really pleased with the early results from Epic, which are driving higher per cap spending and attendance across the entirety of **Universal **Orlando. We remain focused on expanding ride throughput as we build to run rate capacity and expect Epic to continue scaling over the next year with higher attendance, stronger per caps and improved operating leverage.” Advan estimates that Epic is doing about 30% of the attendance that Universal Studios Orlando does.

Given that it’s Halloween, we are going to use its darker tone in this story. In August, Amazon launched same-day delivery in perishables in 1000 cities and while the year-end target of 2000 cities was bold, with Q3 results, CEO Andy Jassy shared that they have lifted the target to 2300, which tells us that Amazon really likes what it’s doing for the overall business. He stated that the offering is “really changing the trajectory and the size of our grocery business,” which hitherto was self-stable / center-store categories.

This week, concerns rose on consumer “health” given weaker results from packaged food, weak results from Chipotle, and very low guidance for Q4 from Sprouts Farmers Market. Sprouts has knocked it out of the ballpark for the past six quarters, and so, to guide to comps of only 0-2% for Q4 is to suggest a sharp downshift in consumer spending. As it relates to Sprouts, along with incremental paycheck behaviour, perhaps weaker execution and new competition may be at work as well.

Given slow drip inflation, a worrisome jobs market, and student loan repayments, we were pleasantly surprised that trends for both Lux and mass beauty have recently improved after a soft ’24 and 1H’25 per the Q3 results from L’Oréal, LVMH, Estée Lauder, and Procter & Gamble. Encouragingly, we also see the improvement in observed traffic and spend at Ulta. What’s going on? And what does it mean for the category’s big season ahead?

Chili’s outstanding market share gains continues with FQ1 comp-traffic gaining +13% which drove a similar gain QoQ in the 3-year comp CAGR (+4.2%). (Brinker’s fiscal quarter ended September 24th.) Price and mix each added 4 pts, taking the comp-sales increase to 21.4%. As a reminder, industry sales growth is only +4% range*, and so, Chili’s is 5X that. FQ1’s strong comps also drove robust increases in margins and earnings, with Chili’s restaurant operating margin hitting 17.

Well, Starbucks’ US comp-sales were not down -1% as investors feared, but flat for the quarter, which was a +200bps QoQ improvement. Additionally, the comp was not driven by more pricing as average check decelerated -100bps QoQ to only contribute +100bps YoY. Comp-traffic/transaction was the driver, improving from -4% to -1%, or around +300bps QoQ. That 300bps increase was ahead of observed traffic (Advan), which strengthened by +80bps. (Others were suggesting a -160bps QoQ deterioration.

O’Reilly once again outperformed the competition and grew meaningful market share, especially in commercial (the DIFM business). Overall comp-sales increased +5.6% in an industry that grew around +1.0% (CB MRTS ) and ahead of NAPA (+2.2%). O’Reilly’s 2- and 3-year comp CAGRs, and new store productivity all strengthened. Commercial comp-sales were around +10.3%, whereas DIY lagged at +1.2%. The more sluggish DIY figure likely reflects the economic and societal pressures facing the non-affluent .