United Parks & Resorts (SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, etc.) reported roughly flat underlying domestic attendance for the smaller CQ4 period, and a decline in international attendance (similar to other operators). Domestic attendance was supported by discounting and other inducements. That and the decline in international attendance resulted in a -20% decline in EBITDA. Despite a lot of new competitive pressure in Orlando, SeaWorld was able to keep the time spent by domestic visitors for Q4 at roughly flat YoY.

Marmaxx produced a strong +5% comp-sales increase and HomeGoods a stronger +6%. For Marmaxx (TJ Maxx and Marshalls), the commentary and comp composition suggest that its merchants were able to source something extra special in terms of “best” brands. This would be from Neiman / Saks’ high-end vendors that had to redirect orders elsewhere given Neiman / Saks’ inability to pay for them. We now suspect that this “extra special” sourcing or “boost of luxury” also drove FQ3 and Ross’ results.

Use data-driven demand signals, not gut instinct, to fill your vacant space. Introduction to Void Analysis Void analysis has always been a core leasing tool in retail CRE. When space goes dark, the job is to identify what the trade area can support and match that to a tenant that strengthens the mix. What’s changed is how quickly markets move and how much better the data has gotten. The old way still “works” sometimes, but it often leads to the same outcome: a long prospect list, slow traction, and a deal that fills space without improving performance.

From foot traffic to macro trends, how innovative brands are turning location data into results. Introduction to Location Intelligence Why Location Intelligence Matters Today Most decisions look clean in a spreadsheet until you ask one uncomfortable question: where is this actually happening? Because in the real world, trends don’t move evenly. Demand rises in pockets. Risk clusters in specific corridors. Operational issues flare up in certain regions and then spread. If you only track totals and averages, you often miss the early signal and you react late.

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Walmart again reported strong results for Walmart US and Sam’s Club, with the business model rapidly changing with fast delivery / upgraded merchandise offerings attracting more affluent households and that / retail evolution producing a large profit pool of alternative revenue streams (advertising, etc.) that allows Walmart to lean into EDLP, and drive more separation from incumbent retail. FQ4 contained a lot of external noise, hurricane comps, government shutdown, a more choiceful lower-end consumer, and yet, Walmart delivered +4.

The 8th issue of The Advan Buysider is now available. As a reminder, The Buysider is designed to provide timely, novel, and impactful insights on specific names and topics using Advan’s data. I welcome your feedback. Should you not see names / sectors that are of high interest today, reach out to me. The takeaways from #8: 1) You’ll have noticed that we’ve begun to update on names (some previews, some post-views) between full issues.

The wireless / cable industry’s competitive fervor is intensifying, for which the i-Phone 17’s high consumer appeal has been an agent; Apple is a large beneficiary of that fervor. The intensity has risen because: (1) increasing overall wireline-to-wireless convergence (lots of new fiber being laid down and traditional cable’s contraction is worsening), and (2) Verizon has a new CEO (or sheriff) that’s gunning for market share of net-adds. Observed visitation (Advan) market share trends have aligned with T-Mobile’s trends in postpaid phone net adds.

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O’Reilly Auto reported sales trends largely consistent with Q3 trends. Its market share capture in Commercial was again very strong. The DIY side of the business is still soft, reflecting that consumer. That said, vehicles need to be repaired when they break down, and so the volume decline in DIY is reasonably benign. Competition appears rational, given O’Reilly’s strong gross margin performance and despite O’Reilly moving into new East Coast markets; they win durable market share by out-serving the competition.