On the surface of Starbucks’ quarterly results, little improvement is visible for the US segment; US comp-transactions were again down -4% and profits fell -36%. However, as we highlighted in our last review of Starbucks’ results, it is succeeding in reclaiming the third place in people’s lives. We draw that conclusion as the dwell time and visit frequency improved once again, and especially for those visits exceeding 30 minutes – as shown in the table below.

Auto part retail, and specifically, O’Reilly (ORLY), Advance (AAP), and NAPA (GPC), are interesting businesses from an alternative data estimate perspective given that commercial (or DIFM) is half of the industry’s revenue and that’s billed business vs. POS / credit card. (For NAPA it’s nearly 80%.) Mobility data captures both – the DIY visit to the store and the store’s delivery truck leaving the store to deliver parts to a repair shops.

Most will know that the telecommunications industry is converging and transforming via new networks. By converging, we mean that legacy wireless brands are rapidly encroaching on cable’s broadband business with both new fiber builds and wireless broadband (5G fixed wireless), and cable is using Verizon’s network (a wholesale relationship) to offer wireless service and encroach on legacy wireless. Interesting, this week T-Mobile opened its network to cable to sell wireless service to small- to mid-sized enterprises.

Tesla’s quarterly results and commentary allowed us to delve deeper into our Advan Buysider theme / use case on Tesla’s autos business (on its other sentiment drivers – ZEV credits, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, Gronk, etc, we have no data or opinions). Q2 deliveries / production were already known, as such, it was the 2H tone / feel that mattered, and on this, management only offered that the environment was “challenging.” Moreover, they shared that they have pushed back the new lower-cost new model, again, to maximize production on existing models before the EV tax credit expires, which is September 30th.

As anticipated, Chipotle reported soft results for Q2, including comp-transactions declining -4.9%; total revenue of $3.14B was marginally above Advan’s $3.11B estimate, i.e. darn close. (The -4.9% is -260 bps of deceleration QoQ; Advan’s visits estimate decelerated -245bps QoQ, or roughly the same.) As a reminder, the fast-food industry is facing cyclical and secular pressure on sales – a topic that we presented to UBS’ clients this week, where the cyclical is consumption shifting to less expensive channels like food-at-home and convenience , and the secular is fewer calories consumed due to weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, etc).

As previewed , June retail sales increased at a slower pace than May, which itself was down from April’s; additionally, CPI showed the beginning of tariff costs being passed through to the consumer. Both were modest shifts, and so far in July, things have broadly firmed up, which we suspect is early back-to-school activity. This back-&-forth in momentum has been a persistent pattern since 2022, with seasonal periods picking up nicely (last Christmas was a blow-out holiday, for example) followed by broader and deeper troughs in between.

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Domino’s reported a much improved quarter vs. Q1 with US comp-sales increasing by +3.4%, driven by mix (Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza), positive pricing (COGS increased +4.8%), and comp-transactions (+2.0%). Carryout comp-sales increased +5.8% and delivery, +1.5% with more households choosing the cheaper carryout option. The Parmesan Stuffed is a new item and CEO Russell Weiner said, “Customer praise for this product has been significantly higher than any of our recent product launches.

The Fed’s latest Beige Book was released last week; the Atlanta district’s comments read, “Travel and tourism activity grew modestly, on balance, since the previous report [early June]… Group bookings for some properties did not meet expectations as international travel to the U.S. from Canada, Asia, and Europe, continued to slow. Demand for cruises rebounded from lows earlier this year.” These observations align with our story that Universal’s new Epic Universe theme park hasn’t yet lifted the Orlando Market.

We wrote an insights piece two weeks ago about the improving traffic into convenience and gas station stores (C&G), specifically from the pump pad into the store, and noted that it was a favorable development for CPG suppliers as well as the major operators, Casey’s Stores, Chevron, 7-Eleven, and Circle-K, etc. Today brought Pepsi’s Q2 earnings results, and lo and behold, the trend improved for Frito-Lay’s savory snacks business (Doritos, Tostitos, Lay’s, Fritos, etc.