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Advan Notable Hit: Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Advan Notable Hit: Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Notable Hit: (TSCO:NASDAQ) On Thursday January 27, 2022 Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) posted better-than-expected revenues of $3.32bn surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.21bn or by +3.4% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 15% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +25% YoY at its stores for Q4 2021. The stock opened +5.9% higher from previous close. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.
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Advan Notable Hits: United Airlines (UAL) & American Airlines (AAL)

Advan Notable Hits: United Airlines (UAL) & American Airlines (AAL)

Notable Hit 1: (UAL:NASDAQ) On Thursday January 21, 2022 United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) posted better-than-expected revenues of $8.192bn surpassing the consensus estimate of $7.93bn or by +3.3% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 140% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +79% YoY at United’s passenger terminals for Q4 2021. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.
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Advan Notable Hit: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Advan Notable Hit: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Notable Hit: (DAL:NYSE) On Thursday January 13, 2022 Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) posted better-than-expected revenues of $9.47bn surpassing the consensus estimate of $8.77bn or by +7.98% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 138% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +89% YoY at Delta’s passenger terminals for Q4 2021. The stock was up +4.7% from previous close shortly after the opening bell.
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Advan Notable Hit: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Advan Notable Hit: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Notable Hit: (BBBY:NASDAQ) On Thursday January 6, 2022 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) posted worse-than-expected revenues of $1.88bn missing the consensus estimate of $1.97bn or by -4.57% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was down 28% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured a decrease in foot traffic of -15% YoY at its stores for fiscal Q3 2021. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.
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Advan Notable Hit: Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Advan Notable Hit: Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Notable Hit: (DRI:NYSE) On Friday December 17, 2021 Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) posted better-than-expected revenues of $2.27n beating the consensus estimate of $2.23bn or by 1.8% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 37% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +47% YoY at its restaurants for fiscal Q2 2022. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.99 on a YoY basis with DRI’s top-line revenue over the last 12 quarters.
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Advan Notable Hit: Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) & Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)

Advan Notable Hit: Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) & Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)

Notable Hit 1: (THO:NYSE) On Wednesday December 8, 2021 Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) posted better-than-expected revenues of $3.96bn beating the consensus estimate of $3.48bn or by 13.8% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 56% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in employee foot traffic of +39% YoY at its factories for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $107.
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Advan Notable Hit: Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

Advan Notable Hit: Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

Notable Hit 1: (FIVE:NASDAQ) On Wednesday December 1, 2021 Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) posted better-than-expected revenues of $607.65mm beating the consensus estimate of $561.32mm or by 8.2% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 27.5% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +30.7% YoY at its stores for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $206.
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Black Friday In-Store Shopping Lower Than Pre-Pandemic Levels

Black Friday In-Store Shopping Lower Than Pre-Pandemic Levels

Traffic on Black Friday after Thanksgiving was materially higher across Advan Indices compared with last year’s levels. But visits are still down compared to 2019 records for most of the indices. Clothing and Accessories index saw an increase of 55% yoy but down 15.3% Yo2Y while Furniture and Food Stores including food stores such as Kirkland’s/Restoration Hardware and Kroger’s and Whole Foods respectively have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. The biggest difference has been observed on Gas Stations index, which saw an increase in traffic of over 66% year-over-two-year as the Americans have been still driving more than they ever did.
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CMBS test case: MSBAM 2013-C10

CMBS test case: MSBAM 2013-C10

The lower tranches of MSBAM 2013-C10 have been in trouble since the beginning of the pandemic. Fitch details their latest downgrade in their last update at the end of September. In particular, the downgrade is due to the troubles at Westfield Citrus Park, which is in a friendly foreclosure; Southsdale Center; and the Mall at Tuttle Crossing. Let’s look at these centers in sequence. According to Fitch, Westfield Citrus Park reported June 2021 TTM in-line sales of approximately $120 compared to $379 per sqft at YE 2019.
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Advan Notable Hits: Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) & Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

Advan Notable Hits: Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) & Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

Notable Hit 1: (BURL:NYSE) On Tuesday November 23 , 2021 Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) posted better-than-expected revenues of $2.3bn beating the consensus estimate of $2.22bn or by 3.44% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 38.19% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +24.53% YoY at its stores for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $271.
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