Heading into earnings season we reviewed foot traffic data at four major hotel chains to help provide insights into likely company performance. We looked at Extended Stay America (STAY), Choice Hotels (CHH), Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT) and compared the percentage change in stock prices over time with the average percentage change in foot traffic for the same period. From the second week of February all four of the chains we analyzed saw a steep and prolonged fall in stock price through to the first week of April, when they began to rebound.

As a continuation of our previous analysis Path to Recovery Far from Clear , we updated the data to show how the foot traffic trend at consumer discretionary businesses varies in three states: California, New York and Texas. The US faces a deep coronavirus crisis as new cases are surging to record highs in many states. Texas was one of the first states to reopen in May with restaurants, retail stores, malls and even theaters to allow to reopen at limited capacity.

The RV market in the US looks like it may have found a new client base during the pandemic. As reported by the New York Times , companies like Cruise America, the largest RV rental company in the US, typically count on overseas visitors for about 40% of their bookings. The majority of these visitors usually come from Europe and with borders closing, rentals fell steeply. Foot traffic to rental locations was down over 40% in April compared to the previous year.

With COVID cases rising again in Southern and Western states, the Washington Post reported that many hospitals are under renewed strain, with beds being filled to capacity. In order to measure the true number of hospital admissions, we have developed an algorithm that can track overnight stays for any period of time (by excluding staff and visitors). The chart below reflects the critical situation that hospitals are facing in light of rising case numbers.

For our fourth post in our summer series, we switch to what we would broadly term essential retailers. Big box stores such as CostCo and Sam’s Club were early winners in the pandemic era as many of us stocked up in preparation for an anticipated period of lock-down. Below, a chart for Costco foot traffic since January shows a familiar story. A peak in late March, followed by a drop through April, as lock-downs were imposed and stores restricted the number of people who could enter.

In this third blog post of our summer series, we review two different measures of economic activity that can help paint an overall picture of consumer trends. Measuring foot traffic at consumer discretionary businesses helps us understand the extent to which people are back to shopping for non-essentials - an indicator for increasing flexibility of movement and confidence in the outlook. During April and May there was a massive year-over-year drop in visits to non-essential locations.

In this second post based on data from our summer webinar, we reviewed the sectors at the heart of the tourism industry - hotels, restaurants and casinos. We had previously analyzed hotel foot traffic in multiple states. You can read our full analysis in a previous blog post here . Just to recap, in the majority of states hotel foot traffic remains well below average, pre-pandemic levels. The exception is South Carolina, where hotel traffic has returned to levels 5% above the start of the year.

Last week we hosted a webinar where we dug into some key data to help understand and predict trends for the travel and tourism sectors as we head into the summer. Since Europe was locked down earlier than North America, it has also started opening up sooner. As a comparison, we looked first at foot traffic in European airports to see whether there are any early signs of a pick-up in visitors coming into the peak holiday period.

In the past week, many states have started to see a resurgence in the number of COVID cases. In response to the need for more accurate data to monitor the pressure being placed on hospitals around the country, we have significantly enhanced our data on hospital admission. Our data is now more precise and, crucially it can also be broken down to show overnight stays over over 3 days to give a true picture of the number of beds being used.

As one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, hotels, resorts and leisure facilities are hoping that the summer may offer a recovery in the form of reduced case numbers and fewer cancelled vacations. A critical period for the industry, a bounce back in July and August could help mitigate some of the losses from the past few months. Our analysis of foot traffic, using our Hotel, Resort and Leisure Index, shows a very mixed picture across different states.