Notable Hit 1: (RRR:NASDAQ) On Tuesday February 11, 2025 Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) posted revenues of $495.7 mm surpassing the analysts estimates by 0.82% and closer to Advan’s implied sales of 492.5 mm (-0.61%). Advan’s data showed a 10.1% increase YoY in foot traffic to its resorts in Q4 2024; the company’s revenue increased 7.1% YoY. As a result of beating revenue and earnings as well as the declaration of quarterly dividends, the company’s stock next day opened 4.

Ahold reported a stronger set of figures for Q4. Per Advan Research, traffic is even better 2025-to-date, including for its Stop & Shop, as shown in the chart below. The improvement is on both a 1-year and 2-year basis for all Ahold brands. On its results, management noted that volumes for the U.S. business had finally turned positive and that consumers were responding to its price investments in the market (i.

SiteOne’s business and results are interesting these days as they provide a read on the results of immigration policy on industries heavily dependent on immigrants, extreme weather and natural disasters, commodity inflation, and housing. The latter three of these were impactful to SiteOne’s Q4 as one can see in the chart below, obviously especially for Florida. The pick up following the hurricanes was quite abrupt and one would expect those orders to be larger which may be behind SiteOne’s daily volume increase of +4.

Differentiation was the key to growth in sales and market share in food retail in 2024 – a challenging year for conventional retailer offerings. As shown above, Whole Foods enjoyed robust comp-traffic all year long, and the traffic aligns with its reported sales growth rate of mid-single-digits-plus, with a Q4 increase of +8%. (Mid-February comp-traffic is +7% on a T4W basis.) In our observations at their locations, the success stems from leveraging the Amazon relationship, sharper value on its offering, and solid execution on retail fundamentals.

As traffic data and intra-quarter commentary indicated, U.S. comp-sales deteriorated QoQ by -110bps for a -1.4% decline for Q4. Advan Research data showed a -136bps deterioration in traffic and -115bps in spend*. However, since the E. coli scare in October , the traffic and sales trend has improved as shown in the chart above. CEO Kris Kempczinski stated, “The U.S. food safety issue is now largely behind us, and we expect to have fully recovered by the beginning of Q2.

What struck us about Amazon’s Q4 results was the significant upside in its North America margins and profits; margins hit 8.0% vs. the expectation of 6.5% (BBG) and EBIT hit $9.3B vs. the expectation of $7.4B. Amazon has worked diligently to lower the cost to serve since early 2023 by staging more of its inventory close to the consumer using predictive inventory planning and is regional delivery stations. On the call, CEO Andy Jassy said, “Our speed of delivery continues to accelerate, and 2024 was another record-setting year for Prime members.

Snack & Beverages Under Pressure As Consumer Cuts Visits Into The C-Store Given the deterioration in traffic and conversion at C&G stores since October, as shown in the chart above, it wasn’t a surprise to see weak results and guidance by PepsiCo this week. CEO Laguarta in the press release was quoted as saying, “Looking ahead to 2025, we will [be] taking actions to improve performance in North America. Our multiyear productivity initiatives will help fund disciplined commercial investments and aid our profitability.

Notable Hit 1: (EAT:NYSE) On Wednesday January 29, 2025 Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) posted revenues of $1.36 bn surpassing the analysts estimates by 14% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. Advan’s data showed a 23.8% increase YoY in foot traffic to its restaurant chains in Q4 2024. Visits to Chili’s were up 25.5% YoY; the company’s revenue increased 26.5% YoY. The stock closed up 16% from previous close.

The casual dining scene in the U.S. has been a rollercoaster over the past two years, with some brands struggling to keep pace while others have found ways to thrive. Chili’s, Texas Roadhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory have all experienced their ups and downs, but Chili’s recent turnaround stands out the most. At the start of 2023, things weren’t looking great for Chili’s. Foot traffic according to Advan’s intelligence was down, with year-over-year restaurant visits slipping into negative territory for much of the year.