Vail Resorts, a leader in the ski industry, has long been defined by its aggressive expansion strategy and the introduction of the Epic Pass, which revolutionized how skiers access multiple destinations. However, recent challenges, including labor disputes, operational issues, and competition from alternative passes suggest that the company’s dominant position is facing mounting pressure. A recent Wall Street Journal report highlights that Vail Resorts saw a decline in Epic Pass sales for the first time, marking a shift that could have long-term implications.

Notable Hit 1: (UAL:NASDAQ) On Tuesday January 21, 2025 United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) posted revenues of $14.7 bn surpassing the analysts estimates by 3% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. Advan’s data showed a 6.7% increase YoY in foot traffic to terminals at hubs operated by United in Q4 2024; the company’s revenue increased 7.9% YoY. As a result of beating revenues and earnings, the stock next day opened up 4.

Notable Hit 1: (DAL:NYSE) On Friday January 10, 2025 Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) posted revenues of $15.56 bn surpassing the analysts estimates by 10% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. Advan’s data showed a 3.3% increase YoY in foot traffic to the terminals at hubs operated by Delta in Q4 2025; the company’s revenue increased 10% YoY. As a result, the stock was trending up 12% from previous close.

Notable Hit 1: (DRI:NYSE) On Thursday December 19, 2024 Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) posted revenues of $2.89 bn surpassing the analysts estimates by 1% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. Advan’s data showed a 2.3% increase YoY in foot traffic to its restaurants, including Olive Garden and other chain restaurants, in Q3 2024; the company’s revenue increased 6% YoY. The stock closed up 14.7% from previous close. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.

Starbucks faced a challenging 2024, marked by slowing growth, increased competition, and evolving consumer preferences. The company struggled to maintain its momentum from prior years, grappling with inconsistent foot traffic and mixed financial results. A significant turning point came in September with the appointment of Brian Niccol as CEO. Niccol, who previously spearheaded Chipotle’s impressive turnaround, brought a fresh perspective and a renewed focus on operational efficiency and customer engagement. His efforts are beginning to shape Starbucks’ strategy, but the results remain a work in progress.

Notable Hit 1: (PLAY:NASDAQ) On Tuesday December 10, 2024 Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) posted revenues of $453 mm missing the analysts estimates by 3.4% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. Advan’s data showed a 1.3% decrease YoY in foot traffic to its stores in Q3 2024; the company’s revenue decreased 3% YoY. The stock next day closed down 20% from previous close. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.

Earlier this week we examined how air travel fared during Thanksgiving 2024 (short answer: flat for the last 4 years): https://advanresearch.com/air-travel-steady-during-thanksgiving But as we all know, the other favorable method of travel for Americans is the symbol of freedom: the automobile. Traditionally, Thanksgiving week was the most traffic jammed travelled period of the year. How did this and prior years fare? To get a full picture, here we compare the miles travelled for the whole week, from Saturday before Thanksgiving until Sunday after Thanksgiving, versus the miles traveled for each year (excluding December, for which we don’t have 2024 data yet), so we can see not only the absolute but also the relative trends vs what happens throughout the year.

Between the inherent drive to get away from it all and the fear that you will be squeezed like a sardine / ignored at the counter / trampled by the crowds / have your Luis Vuitton bags smudged / insert your own excuse here, air travel during Thanksgiving has held surprisingly steady over the last 4 years, and just below its all time highs. Here we utilize cellphone data to measure foot traffic in airport locations and airline terminals.

We have all been seeing that with each passing year the panic of shopping on Black Friday has been subsiding. No more stories of pepper-spraying or trampling each other to be the first to grab the best deals. The foot traffic is corroborating that sentiment. As seen in the first graphic below, the Black Friday retail store visits are showing a clearly declining trend. There were fewer Black Friday store visits this year than during the pandemic!