As one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, hotels, resorts and leisure facilities are hoping that the summer may offer a recovery in the form of reduced case numbers and fewer cancelled vacations. A critical period for the industry, a bounce back in July and August could help mitigate some of the losses from the past few months. Our analysis of foot traffic, using our Hotel, Resort and Leisure Index, shows a very mixed picture across different states.

Earlier this week we shared our global Sector Tracker that analyzes recovery trends by highlighting the sector with most week-over-week growth in each country. Last week, in the US, it was the transportation sector the had seen the biggest uptick in activity, based on our analysis of foot traffic at key locations. Since a significant share of traffic measured in this sector comes from airports, this is an indicator of an important trend for the travel industry.

Those of us based in the US and particularly in hard-hit states like New York have been keeping a close eye both on news about reopening our states, and on infection rate data across the country, to help us understand what the coming months may look like. Around the world, countries are very different stages of infection and recovery. For investors there are lessons to be learned from around the world given the different timelines and approaches for managing the pandemic, and varying strategies for recovery.

Building on previous posts from Advan Research and Eigen10 Advisors using anonymized cell phone movement over time to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on various real estate property segments, this week we explore the different experiences metro areas have had returning to the office. The market areas were chosen to represent a cross-section of the country, which had their own set of stay in place orders, and in turn, timing of a return to work.

With a decrease in social distancing measures across most states, and markets reaching record highs, the past couple of weeks had felt like a tentative breakthrough after months of lockdown and uncertainty. Yet news from the Fed today that they would hold rates steady for the foreseeable future and another heavy week for jobless claims led to a 5% drop in the Nasdaq. The fall of 1,400 points sent stocks towards their worst day for markets since mid-March.

Monday was the first day non-essential office workers could return to work in Boston. There was NO rush back to the office. Using mobile tracking data from Advan Research, overall foot traffic was up 7.3% in the Seaport waterfront last week compared to 2 weeks ago. Compared to one-year ago, foot traffic is down 83%. Numerous employers have pushed back their plans to return to the office between Independence Day and Labor Day, significantly limiting overall foot traffic for the foreseeable future.

As the US restaurant sector starts to get back on its feet, we have been monitoring foot traffic numbers with interest to see which are turning around most quickly. The 3 chains we analyzed saw significant falls in traffic between mid-March and the end of April. This was most dramatic for Darden, where foot traffic fell to almost zero given the sit-down nature of the chain’s restaurants. Yum brands saw a 60% fall in foot traffic at the nadir and Chipotle a 70% drop.

Geolocation data gives us an almost infinite number of ways to track and measure the extent and impact of relaxing social distancing measures, such as we are starting to witness in many states across the country. For us – based on our extensive analysis of this kind of data – “miles driven” is a key leading indicator of behavior. Our proprietary miles driven index is an accurate way to track how many miles individuals in the US are driving on a daily basis.

Over the past several weeks, meat processing plants around the world have been receiving increased attention in the media. The high numbers of COVID-19 cases in these locations, where physical distancing can be difficult, has affected meat supply chains across the country. While some plants closed, many have now reopened. Physical distancing measures are in place but the number of workers on production lines remains depressed with many having fallen sick and others cautious about returning to work due to the risk of infection.

Authorities around the world are working hard to understand how people are altering their behavior as rules around social distancing begin to change. Gathering data on where people are congregating is a valuable measure for understanding risks and calculating the likelihood of a second wave of infections. To help provide these insights, we developed our Hotspots map. We define a Hotspot as a city block in which more than 50 people are gathered at the same time for more than 15 minutes - excluding homes and other residences.