By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights As anticipated, March was a strong month for retail sales per the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report, and no, it wasn’t all due to pull-forward effects and pre-buying ahead of tariffs as we showed earlier . Yes, there was pull-forward in auto, furniture, and electronics but the month was also better for other general merchandise categories and apparel as well. We attribute that improvement (beyond pull-forward) to warmer temperatures after a harsh February and early March, and an overall strong spring selling season despite Easter’s timing.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Yes, the stock market and economy are in a tempest, and investors have been de-risking their portfolios and cutting exposure to cyclical companies and those that have too much debt; that change in preferences favors consumer staples and utility stocks. How about telecom? After all, few households can risk cutting their wireless subscription to save money, (unless they’re planning to escape the potential calamity by riding out the next two years on a deserted tropical island.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Last Friday, we delivered a presentation to Morgan Stanley’s institutional clients. Our conclusion of the work was that consumer spending had picked up in March following a slow start to the year. However, given Wednesday’s news, what happened in March was of limited importance as the focus ripped over to “how bad are things going to get.” Well to understand how significantly things moved, one needs a starting point.