McDonald’s reported a much-improved US comp-sales increase of 2.5%, a 510bps QoQ improvement. Advan data estimates that traffic improved 200bps QoQ and that ticket improved 300 bps to a +2.1% increase. The 2.1% increase is less than inflation (CPI) at 3.5% indicating that McDonald’s is underpricing the market in order to amplify its value positioning; we know that they are aggressively messaging “McValue” deals. CEO Chris Kempczinski said, “Overall, we’ve made good progress with our value offerings.

In contrast to the frequent press articles that Target’s foot traffic and sales were down mid-to-high single-digits due to consumer backlash over Target’s DEI policy changes, comp-transactions / traffic was down only -2.4%. Comp-sales for the stores were down -5.7%, which was partially offset by a +4.7% in digital sales (which is mainly store-delivery and curbside). As shown in the table below, February was the softest month per Advan traffic, and the period’s reported traffic* was largely in line with the Advan estimate.