The wireless / cable industry’s competitive fervor is intensifying, for which the i-Phone 17’s high consumer appeal has been an agent; Apple is a large beneficiary of that fervor. The intensity has risen because: (1) increasing overall wireline-to-wireless convergence (lots of new fiber being laid down and traditional cable’s contraction is worsening), and (2) Verizon has a new CEO (or sheriff) that’s gunning for market share of net-adds. Observed visitation (Advan) market share trends have aligned with T-Mobile’s trends in postpaid phone net adds.

O’Reilly Auto reported sales trends largely consistent with Q3 trends. Its market share capture in Commercial was again very strong. The DIY side of the business is still soft, reflecting that consumer. That said, vehicles need to be repaired when they break down, and so the volume decline in DIY is reasonably benign. Competition appears rational, given O’Reilly’s strong gross margin performance and despite O’Reilly moving into new East Coast markets; they win durable market share by out-serving the competition.

Amazon’s in-line results were marked by management signaling that the company was entering another large multi-faceted investment cycle and that the P&L efficiencies that the retail business has enjoyed over the past two years has come to a close. Amazon’s grocery business gained meaningful market share in 2025. Share gains will continue in 2026 and Amazon expects to open 100 new Whole Foods locations in the coming years. This added competitive intensity will further pressure conventional grocers and survival will be dependent on the incumbents delivering exceptional store locations, standards, and service levels, and differentiated on-target merchandise assortments.

Coach (Tapestry) and Ralph Lauren had a very successful holiday quarter in both sales and profit growth. Their ongoing success stems from elevating their brand and using the proceeds to increase top-of-the-funnel marketing and presence in key influential (cer) cities such as Miami, Los Angeles, and New York. It’s a playbook that European luxury brands are also employing. As such, for the right trade areas, demand for real estate is hot and will remain so.

· Chipotle once again reported soft comp-store sales and guided for more of that in 2026. · While consumer aversion to Chipotle’s higher menu prices may be one factor for the deterioration in sales growth, Advan’s data and Chipotle’s actions (in terms of menu innovation) suggest that the rapid update of GLP-1 drugs by more affluent households (which Chipotle’s out-indexes in) looks to be the larger driver, i.e. changing consumer needs in how much and what they want to eat.

January retail sales should be strong when they are reported. Broadly speaking, the retailers that were strong in FQ3 and for the holidays, continued to do well in January. Target is an exception with stronger observed results for FQ4 vs. FQ3, by contrast, Best Buy is worse. Within the context that January is a light month for retail, and often a payback period following ebullient holiday periods (see our review here ), we often make light of the month.

Apple won the Holiday in consumer electronics due to compelling new products (largely the iPhone) and a highly competitive US wireless industry. The industry’s strong offers on handsets to subscribers (subsidies), is putting more money into Apple’s coffer. Given the high spend on Apple’s products this holiday season and the vast number of retail brands that sell the iPhone, that crowded out consumer spending in consumer electronics and at Best Buy.

Sherwin reported softer volume results in a lower-volume period, reflecting still soft end-markets. However, the quarter ended and Q1 has started at a faster pace. Sherwin’s 2026 is “softer for longer” and a continued tepid new and existing housing market. Consequently, like in Q4, Sherwin is planning for market share gains to drive top-line growth. Sherwin-Williams produced a +2.7% sales increase for its Paint Stores Group (PSG) business segment which was softer than Q3 (+5.

Starbucks reported much improved comp-growth for its Dec. quarter, including in the US. The improvement stems from the turnaround initiatives devised by CEO Brian Niccol (now five quarters in the role.) Advan data closely matches management’s proof points on the turnaround. The introduced annual guidance indicates that management expects the momentum to build. Niccol’s plan is working, including the reinvestment in store standards, service levels, and brand. Better profit levels are to come in the 2H.

Chili’s comped- the comp and sales are now 62% higher than four years ago. Current QTD comp traffic is running above guidance (per Advan). Chili’s continues to win the “moment of truth” in where consumers choose to dine due to its brand standing for greater value (bang-for-your-buck); Chili’s intends to reinforce that perception and will underprice inflation and competitors in 2026; most will be forced to raise menu prices to offset beef cost inflation.