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Home Improvement’s Q4: Lowe’s and Home Depot’s Results Show Floor Has Been Set in Industry’s Cyclical Downturn

Home Improvement’s Q4: Lowe’s and Home Depot’s Results Show Floor Has Been Set in Industry’s Cyclical Downturn

Lowe’s and Home Depot both noted a very strong December that benefited due to calendar shifts to the detriment of November and January. As shown in the chart above, the traffic in the two weeks following Christmas was very robust. Also of note, the deep drop in traffic ahead of Christmas reflects the absence of one weekend between Holiday-2024 and -2023. (The basket size is up a lot during this period.
4 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Savers Value Village – Hit By The Northern Ice

Savers Value Village – Hit By The Northern Ice

Savers Q4 results showed US sales up +10.5% and comp-sales up +4.7%. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +8.2% estimate* (+/- 40 bps T4Q Moe, 95% T5Q correlation). The 230 bps of outperformance largely reflects a +580 bps contribution from the bolus of new stores opening in the 2H (vs. the 6-month trend of 390 bps). (The year-end U.S. store count was up +11.6% vs the 1H’s +8.6%.) Unfortunately for the company, its large Canadian business continues to be an anchor with comp-sales down -2.
2 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Sprouts Farmers Market – The “Foragers” Deliver The Goods

Sprouts Farmers Market – The “Foragers” Deliver The Goods

Sprouts reported Q4 results showed sales up +18%, comp-sales up +11.5%, and gross margin up +160 bps. The sales increase was well ahead of Advan’s +15.4% estimate* (+/- 130 bps T4Q Moe, 96% T8Q correlation) although Advan’s estimate did correctly forecast a beat vs consensus**. E-commerce grew at a much stronger +37% rate, which added 300bps to the comp growth; additionally, a larger basket size contributed to comp-growth. Those two led to the outperformance versus our estimate.
3 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Big Retail – Walmart Delivered Big Growth Last Year, But This Year Will Be At A Lower Rate

Big Retail – Walmart Delivered Big Growth Last Year, But This Year Will Be At A Lower Rate

Walmart U.S. Q4 results showed sales up +5.0%, comp-sales up +4.6%, and operating margin up +12 bps. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +4.3% estimate* (+/- 90 bps T4Q Moe, 55% T8Q correlation). Excluding e-commerce, curbside, store delivery, and marketplace, comp-sales increased +1.7%. Excluding the average ticket increase of +1.8% implies a slight comp-traffic increase for the period, right in line with Advan’s +0.6% estimate. (Management did say in-store comp transactions were positive.
3 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Food Retail Results

Food Retail Results

Ahold reported a stronger set of figures for Q4. Per Advan Research, traffic is even better 2025-to-date, including for its Stop & Shop, as shown in the chart below. The improvement is on both a 1-year and 2-year basis for all Ahold brands. On its results, management noted that volumes for the U.S. business had finally turned positive and that consumers were responding to its price investments in the market (i.
6 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Sprouts Farmers Market – Sprouts’ Foragers Deserve Big Bonuses

Sprouts Farmers Market – Sprouts’ Foragers Deserve Big Bonuses

Differentiation was the key to growth in sales and market share in food retail in 2024 – a challenging year for conventional retailer offerings. As shown above, Whole Foods enjoyed robust comp-traffic all year long, and the traffic aligns with its reported sales growth rate of mid-single-digits-plus, with a Q4 increase of +8%. (Mid-February comp-traffic is +7% on a T4W basis.) In our observations at their locations, the success stems from leveraging the Amazon relationship, sharper value on its offering, and solid execution on retail fundamentals.
2 minutes
Thomas Paulson Thomas Paulson
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Walmart’s Billion-Dollar Expansion: What It Means for Canada and the U.S.

Walmart’s Billion-Dollar Expansion: What It Means for Canada and the U.S.

Walmart’s recent announcements signal a robust commitment to expanding its footprint and enhancing customer experiences across North America. In Canada, the company is embarking on its most significant investment since entering the market nearly three decades ago. Concurrently, in the United States, Walmart is executing an ambitious growth strategy to strengthen its retail presence.

Walmart Canada’s Landmark Investment and the U.S. expansion strategy

On January 30, 2025, Walmart Canada unveiled plans to invest approximately $4.

3 minutes
Valantis Aristides
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Starbucks in 2024: A Year of Transition and the Impact of Red Cup Day

Starbucks in 2024: A Year of Transition and the Impact of Red Cup Day

Starbucks faced a challenging 2024, marked by slowing growth, increased competition, and evolving consumer preferences. The company struggled to maintain its momentum from prior years, grappling with inconsistent foot traffic and mixed financial results. A significant turning point came in September with the appointment of Brian Niccol as CEO. Niccol, who previously spearheaded Chipotle’s impressive turnaround, brought a fresh perspective and a renewed focus on operational efficiency and customer engagement. His efforts are beginning to shape Starbucks’ strategy, but the results remain a work in progress.
3 minutes
Valantis Aristides
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Luxury Retail Brands: Performance Trends and Foot Traffic Insights for 2024

Luxury Retail Brands: Performance Trends and Foot Traffic Insights for 2024

Luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton, Hermes, and Gucci remain symbols of status and exclusivity, drawing a loyal customer base that prioritizes quality and heritage over price. Over the past two years, these brands have navigated shifting consumer trends and global economic uncertainties. As we approach the end of 2024, year-over-year foot traffic data from Advan Research provides a clearer picture of how these iconic brands are performing.

Year-Over-Year Monthly Foot Traffic Highlights

3 minutes
Valantis Aristides
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Black Friday is losing its luster – but there is a substitute!

Black Friday is losing its luster – but there is a substitute!

We have all been seeing that with each passing year the panic of shopping on Black Friday has been subsiding. No more stories of pepper-spraying or trampling each other to be the first to grab the best deals. The foot traffic is corroborating that sentiment. As seen in the first graphic below, the Black Friday retail store visits are showing a clearly declining trend. There were fewer Black Friday store visits this year than during the pandemic!
2 minutes
Yiannis Tsiounis
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