One year after the initial lockdowns and stay at home orders across the groble, Americans are now driving a lot more, as measured by our miles driven index. More specifically, the last three weeks Advan’s miles driven index captured an increase in traffic as high as 40% nationwide compared to the pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. As the vaccines are being rolled out people’s confidence is picking up and in combination with certain COVID-related restrictions being lifted and the advent of Spring and Spring breaks, everyone seems to be making up for lost travel.

Foot traffic analysis for hotels around the US showed vastly different trends over the holiday season. Compared to the first week of November, hotels in Florida saw a foot traffic uptick of 20% in the week of December 22 - 28, and up 40% in the week between Christmas and New Year, as Americans flocked to warmer climates. Colorado hotels also saw a healthy increase in traffic of 19% in the final week of the year as skiers took to the slopes over the holidays.

There is no question that a segment of retail has moved online this year. Offline (i.e.in-store) credit and debit card spending is down 15% year-over-year versus total spend according to transaction data from ConsumerEdge. Foot traffic at consumer discretionary store locations is also 20% lower year-over-year than foot traffic to production locations for consumer discretionary retailers. These parallel trends show us that foot traffic trends at store locations closely reflect offline spending, while traffic at production facilities gives us a window into total spend - both online and offline.

Advan analysis of footfall at US airports shows a gradual upward trend in traveller numbers, although volumes still remain significantly depressed compared to March. Comparison with TSA screened passengers shows a very high correlation over time, of over 99%. This means that foot traffic data provides almost 100% confidence in showing the number of travelers passing through airports in the US. Follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn .

After months of travel restrictions and lockdown, there is some hope on the horizon for hotel chains such Hilton. Foot traffic is a very accurate measure of performance for hotels, as well as for cash-heavy businesses such as casinos. For such type of companies tracking performance by transaction data is tricky, due to the fact that the booking date is different than the visit day and hotels have to book the revenue when the patrons visit the hotel, not when they book it (by GAAP standards).

In our recent webinar, we spent some time looking into foot traffic trends at airports in America and Europe. Location data is a very reliable proxy for airline passengers, since there are few reasons to be at an airport other than to board a plane. Precise mapping can filter out people who have come to collect or drop off passengers from those who have passed security in order to catch a flight.

As we near the last stretch of the US summer season, we looked again at foot traffic data for US airports as one measure of the impact being felt by the travel industry. In our blog post on June 19th, we noted that traffic at US international hubs was severely depressed, with some regional hubs seeing a little more activity. As a key indicator of overall air travel, the chart below shows foot traffic at all US airports.

Heading into earnings season we reviewed foot traffic data at four major hotel chains to help provide insights into likely company performance. We looked at Extended Stay America (STAY), Choice Hotels (CHH), Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT) and compared the percentage change in stock prices over time with the average percentage change in foot traffic for the same period. From the second week of February all four of the chains we analyzed saw a steep and prolonged fall in stock price through to the first week of April, when they began to rebound.

The RV market in the US looks like it may have found a new client base during the pandemic. As reported by the New York Times , companies like Cruise America, the largest RV rental company in the US, typically count on overseas visitors for about 40% of their bookings. The majority of these visitors usually come from Europe and with borders closing, rentals fell steeply. Foot traffic to rental locations was down over 40% in April compared to the previous year.

In this second post based on data from our summer webinar, we reviewed the sectors at the heart of the tourism industry - hotels, restaurants and casinos. We had previously analyzed hotel foot traffic in multiple states. You can read our full analysis in a previous blog post here . Just to recap, in the majority of states hotel foot traffic remains well below average, pre-pandemic levels. The exception is South Carolina, where hotel traffic has returned to levels 5% above the start of the year.