LOGINThis is an updated version of our original article analyzing the impact of the recent E. coli outbreak at McDonald's. With new foot traffic and cross-visit data, we provide fresh insights on how consumer behavior has evolved, including increased visits to competitors like Wendy’s and Burger King as customers seek alternatives.
In the wake of McDonald’s E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounders, the fast-food giant faced a significant setback, especially in states like Colorado and Nebraska. The source of contamination, identified as slivered onions from supplier Taylor Farms, led to swift action by McDonald’s to remove affected products from their menus. However, the damage to consumer trust and public health has been profound, with one reported death in Colorado and several hospitalizations.
Hospital Visits Spike Amid E. Coli Outbreak
Advan’s foot traffic data reveals a clear correlation between the outbreak and a surge in hospital visits, especially in Colorado. During the week of September 23, Colorado witnessed a staggering 91% increase in hospital visits, aligning with CDC reports of the outbreak’s peak. Now that the outbreak is over, hospital visits in Colorado have started to come down in the last few weeks.
Nebraska and Michigan also showed noticeable spikes, with Nebraska reaching a 14% increase by late October. Washington experienced mixed trends, initially declining by as much as 20% before rebounding to a 10% increase in early November. This varied response highlights the regional differences in public awareness and healthcare-seeking behavior.
Competitor Analysis : Wendy’s and Burger King Gain as McDonald’s Stumbles
Wendy’s Gains from McDonald’s Crisis
While McDonald’s struggled to contain the fallout, competitors like Wendy’s capitalized on the situation. Our foot traffic data indicates a shift in consumer preference, with visits to Wendy’s locations rising significantly. Colorado saw a 16% surge in visits to Wendy’s in early October, suggesting that local customers were seeking alternatives amidst concerns over the safety of McDonald’s products.
Nebraska and Michigan exhibited similar trends, with foot traffic to Wendy’s peaking at 15-16%, suggesting that customers were ditching McDonald’s in favor of its competitors. Washington saw a more subtle response, with a peak increase of 11%, indicating a smaller but notable shift in consumer behavior.
Interestingly, cross visits between Wendy’s and McDonald’s locations showed that many customers continued to frequent both chains, or rather, customers who used to go to Macdonald’s the previous weeks, now go to Wendy’s. Colorado experienced a 17% rise in cross visits during the first week of October, followed by similar increases in Nebraska (16%) and Michigan (15%). This pattern suggests that while some consumers opted for Wendy’s as an alternative, a substantial number continued visiting McDonald’s, perhaps due to brand loyalty or curiosity about the crisis.
Burger King Joins the Competition
Burger King also experienced a surge in visits, though the trends were generally more moderate compared to Wendy’s. Colorado foot traffic to Burger King locations rose steadily throughout October, peaking at a 12% increase during the week of October 14. Nebraska and Michigan saw similar trends, with visits increasing by up to 11% and 6%, respectively, around the same time. Washington showed consistent but smaller growth, peaking at 9%.
Cross-visit trends between Burger King and McDonald’s revealed a similar story. Colorado saw a 10% rise in cross visits during mid-October, followed by more moderate increases in Nebraska (12%) and Michigan (7%). By late October, cross visits began to taper off, suggesting that while Burger King attracted some of McDonald’s customers, it did not see the same sustained gains as Wendy’s.
Implications for the Fast-Food Industry
Advan’s data paints a comprehensive picture of the fallout from McDonald’s E. coli crisis. The sharp rise in hospital visits, coupled with increased foot traffic to competitors like Wendy’s and Burger King, underscores the significant impact on consumer behavior and public health. Wendy’s, in particular, has emerged as a key beneficiary, while Burger King saw moderate but consistent gains.
Foot traffic to McDonald’s locations showed varied trends across states during the crisis. While there was an initial decline in visits during September—most notably in Colorado (-2%) and Nebraska (-1%) (the states with the most people affected) in the week starting September 23—traffic began to recover in early October. By the week of October 14, Colorado and Nebraska saw increases of 7% and 8%, respectively, with Michigan and Washington experiencing similar gains of 6%. This rebound suggests that while consumer sentiment was initially impacted, many loyal customers returned to McDonald’s after the crisis was publicized and corrective actions were taken.
However, the recovery was short-lived. By late October, foot traffic began to decline again, with Colorado seeing a 2% drop and continuing to fall by 4% in early November. Nebraska, Michigan, and Washington followed similar downward trends. These declines in late October and November may indicate lingering concerns among customers or the long-term reputational damage caused by the outbreak.
The cross-visit data highlights the complexities of consumer behavior during crises. While some customers completely avoided McDonald’s, others continued to frequent its locations while also exploring competitors, likely driven by curiosity, convenience, or brand loyalty.
The E. coli outbreak serves as a stark reminder of the importance of food safety and the swift repercussions of public health crises on consumer behavior. Advan’s almost real-time foot traffic data has been instrumental in capturing these shifts, offering valuable insights for both public health agencies and the fast-food industry. As the dust settles, the long-term impacts on McDonald’s market position remain to be seen, with competitors like Wendy’s and Burger King poised to capitalize on any lingering consumer concerns.
