Tesla delivered 480.1K vehicles (+25% YoY) in Q2, beating the consensus figure of 406.0K. The +25% increase was well above Q1’s +6% increase. Sequentially, the +34% QoQ increase was well ahead of the prior three years’ increases of +10-15%. As shown in the following exhibits, the trend of activity at Tesla’s US plants substantially improved in Q2, aligning with the stronger deliveries. Wards and Motor Intelligence data have the US declining -10-15%. Assuming the middle of the range (-12.5%), that would imply that OUS increased +62.5%. We’ve read a number of sell-side reports attributing the beat to the Middle East, Europe, and APAC. However, we’re suspicious that the ME was the driver given the Iran conflict. Europe is reported to have been up +50% (off a low base) per ACEA data, but given the incredibly intense competition in China, it’s hard to believe that Tesla China (half of OUS) could deliver the remaining unit growth (it would need to have increased 80%+); moreover, 3P estimate put the China increase in the +25-30% range. Given these figures and the stronger observed activity at Fremont & Austin, we think US deliveries increased in the +10% range. (Maybe Tesla made a lot of direct sales to SpaceX and their newly minted millionaires, thus escaping Wards / Motor Intelligence measurements? But not Advan’s observations.)
