LOGINFor our fourth post in our summer series, we switch to what we would broadly term essential retailers. Big box stores such as CostCo and Sam's Club were early winners in the pandemic era as many of us stocked up in preparation for an anticipated period of lock-down.
Below, a chart for Costco foot traffic since January shows a familiar story. A peak in late March, followed by a drop through April, as lock-downs were imposed and stores restricted the number of people who could enter. Traffic has leveled off, though remains around 10% below January levels.
Sam's Club shows a very similar pattern, though traffic has recovered to and increased over 14% versus January, having dropped less during April at only 20% below January even at the nadir.
Foot traffic at Pharmacies such as CVS showed a similar trajectory to the Big Box stores, though much less pronounced. Perhaps because the kinds of products bought at pharmacies do not need to be replenished as frequently.
One clear winner during this period has been Amazon. Shelter in place orders have driven a spike in online shopping and the massive growth in employees at Amazon warehouses confirms the extent to which the retailer has benefited.
In our final post of the series we'll share some unique insights on how best to predict the likely forward trajectory of COVID-19.
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