- Wireless phone subscriber results for the Big-3 should remain subdued as visit trends to their retail locations was largely consistent with LQ’s trend at +0.8% YoY growth. The more the activity, the more switching between cariers. The data doesn’t support more switching in Q3.
- T-Mobile’s visits were the most dynamic at +1.1%, suggesting that it took share of industry net adds* for the period, on both a YoY and QoQ basis.
- For the quarter, visits to Apple stores remained subdued indicating that it wasn’t an impact on demand. Traffic has modestly strengthened with the “opening” of the Duo.
- For Q3, AT&T’s gross postpaid phone adds ($2447K) were similar YoY, and yet, equipment revenue increased $535M to $4,642M, reflecting the increase in iPhone prices (all models). The iPhone 17 has increased $100 YoY to $899. Advan suspects that the iPhone’s high price points are suppressing switching. AT&T’s upgrade rate declined from LY’s 4.1% to 3.7% in Q3.
- AT&T’s phone disconnects were roughly flat YoY, as was monthly churn (0.92%).
- Where the competitive intensity is more intense, is broadband. AT&T’s broadband ARPU declined -$2.11/mo QoQ. Last year, Q3 ARPU increased $0.22 QoQ. Ongoing price wars, bundled discounts, wireless substitution, and satellite substitution are a crucible for the incumbents – Comcast, Charter, etc.
- Over the past year, AT&T added +4M new broadband connections. Last year, the entire industry only added 2M. CEO John Stankey said, “At the end of the third quarter, nearly 43% of our Advanced Home Internet customers also had a postpaid wireless account with AT&T.” (i.e. bundling)
See our Q2 review.
‘*T-Mobile doesn’t report the number of phone / internet lines.
