• The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor leads the Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales report and the Monitor reported very strong results for March (+7% YoY). The strength was across the board, except retail that is fueled by more calorie consumption, i.e. both food-at-home and away-from-home, which were softer due to GLP-1.  
• Luxury brands also enjoyed a stronger period, both for the month and year-to-date. LVMH / Gucci both reported stronger figures for the US region. Advan’s SpendView^TM points to stronger results across the board and strengthening results for Prada, Ralph Lauren, and Coach.
• Treasure hunt retail continues to outperform, in line with our preview of March, with strong results from Costco and strong observed trends for off-price.
• Brand heat continues to fuel excellent results for brands that are messaging authentic style, such as Levi’s.

March retail sales, per the Census Bureau’s monthly report, will be reasonably robust, and based upon more data work and stronger results in luxury, we now believe slightly above (+100bps) our prior preview – Previewing March Retail Sales – Dampened by Weather and Geopolitical Discombobulation. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor for March was above February, both on a MoM and YoY basis (+7%). By category, the report showed the greatest improvement in Building & Garden Supplies (from a -6% YoY decline in Jan / Feb to only -0.5%) and Electronics & Appliances (driven by the iPhone 17e). The rapid uptick in GLP1 adoption (weight loss) continues to fuel the “apparel super-cycle” with Clothing & Accessories stores +11% YoY and Sporting Goods, etc. +11%. In the report, the two categories that were slower are on the losing side of GLP1s --  Food Services & Drinking Places slower at +4.6% YoY, down from +7% in Jan / Feb) and Grocery & Beverage retail (+3.8%, down +5% in Jan / Feb).

Our other note from last week: Mall Traffic– The March slowdown is less than is being reported, highlighted that traffic to luxury malls was stronger in March. Aligning with that viewpoint, LVMH reported strong results for its Americas division for Q1, as did Brunello Cucinelli (+20%). LVMH also noted that its Fashion & Leather Division experienced an improvement in demand in America. Gucci is seeing an improvement under its new creative director, organic sales grew +8% in the quarter, the first positive print in a long time.  We’ve reviewed our transaction data (SpendView^TM) for the luxury sector and now expect organic growth to be +200bps-ish stronger QoQ, with the most dynamic improvement seen at Prada, Gucci, Ralph Lauren, and Coach. Ralph Lauren received a material lift (DTC) from its Olympic sponsorship. Coach is just a beast.

Our preview highlighted Costco and treasure hunt retail for having a strong March. Costco’s US comp sales increased +6.2% in March vs. +5.2% in February, and excluding the calendar shift, March comps were ~7.4%, or nearly +220bps stronger MoM (lots of traffic hitter Costco for its lower pump prices). Traffic, including the calendar shift was -80bps MoM, or excluding the shift was stronger by +40bps, again likely do the high activity at the pumps, which flows over into the clubs).

We’ve seen sell-side reports calling out off-price (which we include in treasure hunt retail) as having softer traffic in March. Like with the perceived slowdown in mall traffic in March, we suspect that the “called out softness” is the result of analysts not aligning to the NRF retail calendar, but holding to the nominal calendar, which results in apples-to-oranges comparison, namely a 9-weekend day period to a 10- weekend day period. The table below uses the NRF retail calendar. And so, on an apples-to-apples basis, traffic was moderately less in March, but ticket remains robust. Ticket growth is being driven by product mix, i.e. more better & best, or stronger & stronger treasure hunt scores. That demonstrates ongoing success by the two’s merchants in finding compelling sources and pallets to buy. Strong finds bring back the traffic in the next month. As such, we expect April to be another very strong month for Marmax and Ross Stores.

Finally in our preview, we highlighted Levi’s as “hot” with strong year-to-date revenue growth. Last Thursday, it reported much improved top-line results, including +11% growth in Americas DTC and US wholesale inflecting from a decline to growth. On the call, CEO Michelle Gass said, “A prime example of Levi's showing up organically at the center of culture is Harry Styles wearing a pair of vintage 501s on his new album cover and his backup dancers, all wore 501s on stage at the BRIT Awards in February...  Few brands can authentically play across so many facets of culture, sports, fashion and music in a way Levi's consistently does, and this was on full display during the Super Bowl. Leading up to the game, we turned the Bay Area into Levi's Home Turf with a full 360-degree activation, including exclusive product drops and live music as well as hands-on workshops and in-store celebrity and athlete engagements.”