Key Points:
- Spirit Halloween observed traffic has run flat YoY for the past 5 days, but is peaking above last year. (Data for today and Saturday will be available on Monday.) Given this year’s favorable calendar and the forecast of excellent weather (dry but cool), we expect a lot of trick-or-treating and for Spirit’s season’s traffic to increase low-single-digits. And so, our Halloween forecast -- more treats for the retailers and candy manufacturers.
- Saver Value Village (customs for Halloween parties) observed traffic has increased +3% YoY. Last Halloween was on a Sunday. This year’s Saturday makes for a lot more Halloween parties. Party-goers are getting costumed up. October comp-traffic QTD is up +5%. Our Halloween forecast -- more beer, wine, and spirits.
- Target’s traffic is up slightly. As shown, Target is a Christmas, summer, and back-to-school destination. Halloween isn’t a “win or die” season for them. FQ3 comp-traffic QTD is up +3%.
- Despite being a home décor retailer, Hobby Lobby’s peak season is November. Their website only promotes the fall season and Christmas; there is no Halloween merchandise shown.
- By contrast, Halloween merchandise is ample at Michaels’ stores and website. Michaels’ big season is Christmas, but it also enjoys a Halloween jolt. This year’s jolt is running slightly behind last year’s.
