Key Points:
- United Parks & Resorts reported attendance (6.47M) was marginally below Advan’s observed estimate (6.55M), with the driver being weaker international visitation (which we don’t observe).
- In addition to lower international attendance, contributing to the -4.7% YoY reported decline was adverse weather, a negative calendar shift (Labor Day later), and fewer promotions. Management chose to protect rate (+4% per-caps) and profitability at the expense of volume and market share. That reverses last year’s strategy of focusing on holding market share with increased discounts in the face of competitive pressure from Universal and Disney. That’s called a flip-flop.
- In terms of the individual parks / markets, Orlando was soft (Universal / Disney), Williamsburg, very soft (weather), but Texas was buoyant (just being Texas). Busch Gardens Tampa was better than Orlando.
- As shown in the chart, July was a softer month and then the trend tracked more closely to 2025; that’s the drag of poor weather in the Mid-Atlantic.
- Given the outperformance of the Texas market, SeaWorld San Antonio is now PRKS’ third largest park (observed) visit-wise, moving ahead of Williamsburg.
- The release quotes CEO Marc Swanson, “Looking ahead to 2027 and beyond, we see a clear path to deliver significantly higher attendance, revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. In addition to the encouraging trends in our admissions and in park per caps, our pass sales and pass base… “ That’s encouraging in terms of a read on consumer spending. However, Universal and Disney are continuing to invest aggressively in the Orlando market and so, we expect ongoing challenges there. Plus, the strong results in Texas will capture management’s attention and capital.
- PRKS’ October and Halloween results were not good. Swanson said, “October was really impacted by a lot of weather… especially in our California park and then really across a number of markets, including Virginia, as well as here in Florida where we've had rain… And then they even had some rain on Halloween Day itself in San Diego, which is very, very unusual…And typically Halloween on a Saturday is not something we would prefer. A lot of people spend Halloween closer to their neighborhood or with friends or something and not necessarily at a theme park. ” (We did not see such an impact on Disney / Universal).
