consumer Blog Articles

Ollie

The Last of the Liquidators – Cleaning up

March 19, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings reported solid FQ4 results with adjusted sales growth of +9% to $667M (just shy of Advan’s estimate of $672M). Growth was driven by a +2.8% comp-sales increase and 47 (+9%) more stores over the past year, including...

Target Walmart nationwide

Update on Traffic to Target: No Target-Specific Swoon

March 18, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Over the weekend, again numerous press and blog reports declared Target’s store traffic to be down due to boycotts and upset feelings over Target’s messaging around DEI. However, those reports cite a traffic decline YoY against a week last year that...

Dollar Stores – Back to the basics is working

March 13, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Dollar General reported $10.2B revenue for Q4, up +5.0% YoY, and above our +3.9% estimate* (120bps Moe, 97% correlation). Comp-sales increased +1.2% driven by consumables (+2.7%). The non-consumables comp was roughly flat, the best result since early 202...

Kohl

Kohl’s – Not As Bad As It Seems

March 11, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Kohl’s: Quarterly sales were “less bad” at a decline (-9.4%) than our preview (we said -14%). In our preview, we also forecasted that incoming CEO Ashley Buchanan would set a very low bar on forward expectations, he did. Revenue for 2025 was guided for a...

DKS traffic

Dick’s Sporting Goods – Gold Medal Performance

March 11, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. reported solid results, including an underlying sales increase of 6% based upon a 6.4% comp-sales increase and improved gross margin rate. The comp-sales increase was composed of increases of 4.4% in comp-ticket, 2.0% in...

Target traffic - yoy % change in foot traffic

Target Stores – The Recent Traffic Trend Has Been Strengthening

March 10, 2025

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Last week’s analysis included management’s comments relative to any DEI backlash that they were seeing no impact to their business. However, over the weekend, media outlets wrote about a negative impact on Target store traffic and business from the...