By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Sprouts Farmers Market again produced stellar quarterly results; comp-sales increased +11.7% (vs. Advan’s estimate of +11.9%) and management guided Q2 for a 6.5% - 8.5% increase. We take that outlook to be “conservative” as Advan’s ML estimate is +8.8%,...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
In the context of ongoing weak earnings results for Kraft Heinz and other branded food names, we took a deeper look into Trader Joe’s and Aldi’s traffic growth. Recall that one of our central themes is that industry growth of food-at-home will be driven...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
As anticipated, March was a strong month for retail sales per the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report, and no, it wasn’t all due to pull-forward effects and pre-buying ahead of tariffs as we showed earlier. Yes, there was pull-forward in auto,...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
With Albertson’s quarterly results came the first public comments from incoming CEO Susan Morris (currently COO). Morris touched on management's current initiatives and didn’t introduce anything meaningfully different, i.e. they will continue to work from...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
We’ve recently analyzed Sprouts Farmers Market’s strong 2024 performance and highlighted its success of driving capturing market share and avoiding the grocery industry’s woes. That success stems from merchandise differentiation (see the figure below)....
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
In the context of a market that grew by +3.2% in value and +2.1% in volume, Advan took a look at Publix’s and General Mills’ Q4 results, along with two smaller regional grocers in California – Smart & Final and Stater Bros, brands that we shop and that...
This past week brought a lot of news on the beauty market with earnings from Procter & Gamble, e.l.f. Beauty, Estée Lauder, and L’Oréal. The takeaway from those is that luxury part of the market remains robust, but L’Oréal is taking a lot of share from Estée, which is in trouble. The mass part of...
Dillard’s is the first of the traditional department stores to report in the earnings cycle, providing a glimpse into the past few months of consumer demand. Dillard’s comp-sales decline of -1% was the most muted of the year, but that leaves the business only 5% above 2019’s level (on a comp basis)...
Sprouts reported Q4 results showed sales up +18%, comp-sales up +11.5%, and gross margin up +160 bps. The sales increase was well ahead of Advan’s +15.4% estimate* (+/- 130 bps T4Q Moe, 96% T8Q correlation) although Advan’s estimate did correctly forecast a beat vs consensus**. E-commerce grew at a...
Savers Q4 results showed US sales up +10.5% and comp-sales up +4.7%. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +8.2% estimate* (+/- 40 bps T4Q Moe, 95% T5Q correlation). The 230 bps of outperformance largely reflects a +580 bps contribution from the bolus of new stores opening in the 2H (vs. the...
Walmart U.S. Q4 results showed sales up +5.0%, comp-sales up +4.6%, and operating margin up +12 bps. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +4.3% estimate* (+/- 90 bps T4Q Moe, 55% T8Q correlation). Excluding e-commerce, curbside, store delivery, and marketplace, comp-sales increased +1.7%....
Differentiation was the key to growth in sales and market share in food retail in 2024 -- a challenging year for conventional retailer offerings. As shown above, Whole Foods enjoyed robust comp-traffic all year long, and the traffic aligns with its reported sales growth rate of...
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