By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Macy’s Inc. reported improved holiday results as Advan previewed. Macy’s go-forward 350 reported a comp-sales decrease of -1.6%, roughly in-line with Dillard’s (-1%), and Bloomingdale’s reported a comp-sales increase of +4.8%, roughly in-line with...
As expected, Target reported improved results QoQ and issued seemly conservative guidance for 2025. We write “seemly” because of all the consumer and business unease being stirred by the hurricane in Washington. That unease is leading to lower macro activity, which for retail means a lower volume...
This past week brought a lot of news on the beauty market with earnings from Procter & Gamble, e.l.f. Beauty, Estée Lauder, and L’Oréal. The takeaway from those is that luxury part of the market remains robust, but L’Oréal is taking a lot of share from Estée, which is in trouble. The mass part of...
Dillard’s is the first of the traditional department stores to report in the earnings cycle, providing a glimpse into the past few months of consumer demand. Dillard’s comp-sales decline of -1% was the most muted of the year, but that leaves the business only 5% above 2019’s level (on a comp basis)...
Looking at the off-price sector overall, comp-traffic was solid and while the rate was slower QoQ, that deceleration largely reflected the abbreviated shopping period this year (five fewer days and one fewer weekend between Thanksgiving and Christmas). Sales were likely little impacted as more...
Grocery Outlet Holding announced Q4 results along with a new CEO, Jason Potter – The Fresh Market’s recent CEO, and a restructuring program. (The CEO change was expected) This follows the appointment of its new CFO / CIO in January -- Chris Miller from Shamrock Foods. The restructuring program...
Lowe’s and Home Depot both noted a very strong December that benefited due to calendar shifts to the detriment of November and January. As shown in the chart above, the traffic in the two weeks following Christmas was very robust. Also of note, the deep drop in traffic ahead of Christmas...
Sprouts reported Q4 results showed sales up +18%, comp-sales up +11.5%, and gross margin up +160 bps. The sales increase was well ahead of Advan’s +15.4% estimate* (+/- 130 bps T4Q Moe, 96% T8Q correlation) although Advan’s estimate did correctly forecast a beat vs consensus**. E-commerce grew at a...
Savers Q4 results showed US sales up +10.5% and comp-sales up +4.7%. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +8.2% estimate* (+/- 40 bps T4Q Moe, 95% T5Q correlation). The 230 bps of outperformance largely reflects a +580 bps contribution from the bolus of new stores opening in the 2H (vs. the...
Walmart U.S. Q4 results showed sales up +5.0%, comp-sales up +4.6%, and operating margin up +12 bps. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +4.3% estimate* (+/- 90 bps T4Q Moe, 55% T8Q correlation). Excluding e-commerce, curbside, store delivery, and marketplace, comp-sales increased +1.7%....
Differentiation was the key to growth in sales and market share in food retail in 2024 -- a challenging year for conventional retailer offerings. As shown above, Whole Foods enjoyed robust comp-traffic all year long, and the traffic aligns with its reported sales growth rate of...
SiteOne’s business and results are interesting these days as they provide a read on the results of immigration policy on industries heavily dependent on immigrants, extreme weather and natural disasters, commodity inflation, and housing. The latter three of these were impactful to SiteOne’s Q4 as...
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