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Chipotle – Sales Softer, lapping last year’s success, weather, or competition? Too soon to tell

April 24, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, QSR, chipotle
cmg visits per location traffic

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Chipotle reported a +6.4% revenue increase for Q1, composed of a comp-sales decline of -0.4% and a +680 bps contribution from more locations. Breaking down the comp increase, transaction fell -2.3% (-630 bps QoQ) and check grew by +1.9%. Advan traffic...

Tesla’s “Implied” Outlook through the Lens of Advan – “Bad but not worse”

April 23, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, Automotive, Lithia, Tesla
tesla traffic

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Elon Musk started off the Q1 results call saying, “Well, it's never a dull moment these days. Well, thanks, for sure, every day is going to be exciting.” That’s a statement that most would agree with. Following TSLA the company and stock has never been...

Easter 2025 - I was a success at Dollar General and Walmart

April 21, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, Easter, Walmart, Target, TJX
traffic to easter related locations

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Traffic trends going into Easter Sunday 2025 demonstrated that households planned to celebrate the holiday this year and that the “outside environment” didn’t diminish their enthusiasm and preparations. (Generally, holidays are largely immune from...

March Retail Sales - Stronger as previewed

April 16, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, retail, cpg, economy
retail traffic

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

As anticipated, March was a strong month for retail sales per the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report, and no, it wasn’t all due to pull-forward effects and pre-buying ahead of tariffs as we showed earlier. Yes, there was pull-forward in auto,...

High-End Wobbles? Not yet, insights from LVMH’s results

April 15, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, lvmh
sephora, neiman marcus traffic

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

Following comments from RH two weeks ago that high-end buying patterns had softened, do we see more of that with LVMH reporting a surprisingly soft Q1 sales result? LVMH’s revenue in the US was down -3%, a -600 bps deterioration from Q4’s rate, which...

Albertsons – 2025 to be another year of price investments

April 15, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, grocery, cpg, albetson’s, Kroger
albertson

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

With Albertson’s quarterly results came the first public comments from incoming CEO Susan Morris (currently COO). Morris touched on management's current initiatives and didn’t introduce anything meaningfully different, i.e. they will continue to work from...

Sam’s Club’s Burgeoning Success and a few words from Walmart Inc’s management

shopper household income

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

On Wednesday, Walmart had a well-timed investor day to make its pitch on why it is a steady ship in all sorts of tempests (and sunnier periods), and the justification for accelerating the number of Sam’s Club openings. Big picture, what we heard: (1)...

CarMax Delivers on Execution Amid Market Volatility

April 10, 2025 By Thomas Paulson Tags: consumer, auto, carmax, carvana
carmax

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights

CarMax reported strong quarterly results with increases of +6.2% for comp-unit sales, +3.0% for gross profit per retail used unit, and +8.2% for CAF income. Additionally, management shared that trends in March / April had strengthened; healthy sourcing of...

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